Rugby
Top 10 Biggest Upsets in Rugby History
Rugby is full of unexpected moments where the traditional script is thrown out the window. A late drop goal, for example, may swing a game in a team’s favour, and there have been moments where the underdogs have defied expectations to claim a big scalp. From first-ever victories over traditional powerhouses to dramatic World Cup upsets, these matches have left fans and pundits speechless. But what are the biggest rugby upsets? Our article ranks the top 10 biggest upsets in rugby history, highlighting the context, key players, and significance of some of these results.
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Methodology
We applied multi-layered analysis to determine the most shocking rugby results. The following metrics were used as part of our research:
- Magnitude of Upset – This weighed up pre-match expectations versus the actual result.
- Historical Context – This consisted of a mixture of team history, previous meetings, and winning streaks one side had against another.
- Impact on Tournament/Season – The impact it had on the World Cup or international rankings.
- Fan & Media Reaction – This relates to the coverage and post-match reaction in the rugby community.
Using raw data and industry perceptions heralded the ‘SB Market Index’, a custom-built rating system to establish the top rugby surprises. The results shared were accurate and devoid of bias.
Industry Insights
RugbyWorldCup notes that underdogs often prevail through disciplined game plans, as seen in Argentina vs New Zealand (2020) and Japan vs South Africa (2015). Across all sources, it’s clear that historical dominance is not always predictive, and meticulous preparation can overturn the more fancied side.
Top 10 Biggest Rugby Upsets
| Rank | Match | Year | Score | Significance | Notes |
| 1 | New Zealand vs Argentina | 2020 | 15-25 | First-ever win for Argentina over the All Blacks | Nicolás Sánchez scored all 25 points |
| 2 | Fiji vs Uruguay | 2019 | 27-30 | Uruguay’s first World Cup win over Fiji | Felipe Berchesi crucial with the boot |
| 3 | New Zealand Women vs France Women | 2019 | 7-29 | Ended 38-match winning streak for Black Ferns Sevens | Historic first win for France |
| 4 | South Africa vs Japan | 2015 | 32-34 | Japan’s first Rugby World Cup win over South Africa | Karne Hesketh scored match-winning try |
| 5 | New Zealand Women vs Spain Women | 2015 | 15-19 | Ended Black Ferns’ 36-match winning streak | Crucial tries from Patricia Garcia & Berta Garcia |
| 6 | New Zealand Women vs Ireland Women | 2014 | 14-17 | First-ever meeting; Ireland claimed shock win | Heather O’Brien & Alison Miller decisive |
| 7 | Wales vs Hong Kong | 2010 | 19-21 | Hong Kong upset Wales in sevens series | Anthony Jaynes late score sealed victory |
| 8 | France vs Argentina | 2007 | 12-17 | Argentina defeated host nation France in RWC opener | Ignacio Corleto scored only try |
| 9 | France vs New Zealand | 1999 | 43-31 | Semi-final shock; France turned 14-point deficit into win | Christophe Lamaison drop goals & second-half tries |
| 10 | Wales vs Western Samoa | 1991 | 13-16 | Opening match shock in RWC 1991 | Peter Fatiafola & To’o Vaega led Samoa’s historic win |
SB Score Table – Magnitude of Upset
| Match | Magnitude (0-100) | Historical Context (0-100) | Tournament Impact (0-100) | SB Score (Weighted) |
| NZ vs Argentina | 98 | 95 | 90 | 94 |
| Fiji vs Uruguay | 90 | 85 | 88 | 88 |
| NZW vs FranceW | 92 | 90 | 87 | 90 |
| SA vs Japan | 95 | 92 | 89 | 92 |
| NZW vs SpainW | 90 | 88 | 86 | 88 |
| NZW vs IrelandW | 88 | 87 | 85 | 87 |
| Wales vs Hong Kong | 85 | 83 | 84 | 84 |
| France vs Argentina | 89 | 87 | 88 | 88 |
| France vs New Zealand | 94 | 90 | 92 | 92 |
| Wales vs Western Samoa | 91 | 89 | 87 | 89 |
SB Market Index – Fan & Stakeholder Impact
| Match | Fan Shock Factor | Media Coverage | Tournament/Ranking Impact | SB Market Index |
| NZ vs Argentina | 98 | 95 | 90 | 94 |
| Fiji vs Uruguay | 90 | 88 | 87 | 88 |
| NZW vs FranceW | 92 | 90 | 85 | 89 |
| SA vs Japan | 95 | 92 | 88 | 92 |
| NZW vs SpainW | 90 | 87 | 86 | 88 |
| NZW vs IrelandW | 88 | 86 | 85 | 87 |
| Wales vs Hong Kong | 85 | 83 | 83 | 84 |
| France vs Argentina | 89 | 88 | 87 | 88 |
| France vs New Zealand | 94 | 92 | 90 | 92 |
| Wales vs Western Samoa | 91 | 89 | 87 | 89 |
Profiling Some of the Biggest Upsets in Rugby
Argentina vs New Zealand (2020)
In a Tri-Nations match, New Zealand were the overwhelming favourites, but they were left in disbelief by Argentina. Nicolás Sánchez was the star of the show, scoring all 25 points, while this was one of the All Black’s worst performances in the competition, recording only two line breaks. In terms of shock factor, the result caused a bit of a stir, and it was one of those historic rugby underdog victories that lingers in the memory.
Japan vs South Africa (2015)
Previously a rugby minnow, Japan caused one of the greatest rugby World Cup upsets when they dismantled South Africa. Until then, they had only won one game at a rugby World Cup. After trailing by two points going into the half-time break, a huge attacking performance turned things around, and this was one of Eddie Jones’ greatest wins in charge of Japan. This result turned out an excellent SB Score.
France vs New Zealand (1999)
While not necessarily being the biggest upset in rugby, the result sent shockwaves through the game. New Zealand were looking to lift the Webb Ellis Cup for the second time. They may have started the stronger, surging into a 24-10 lead, but they were pegged back by France, and Christophe Lamaison turned the semi-final on its head with two quick drop goals. Mistake after mistake arrived for New Zealand as France clinched an impressive 43-31 win.
Uruguay vs Fiji (2019)
In a frantic World Cup encounter, Uruguay recovered from conceding an early try to control large periods of the game. Felipe Berchesi’s penalty just before the break left Fiji with a mountain to climb as they trailed by 12 points, and Fiji never recovered, although they missed two conversions. A compelling game produced a remarkable result for Uruguay.
Wales vs Western Samoa (1991)
Wales, given their credentials at the time, were expected to make light work of Western Samoa. However, the visitors had other ideas at the 1991 World Cup opener at Cardiff Arms Park. Although the first half was tight and low-scoring (3-3), two early tries at the start of the second half from To’o Vaega and Tuala Sila Vaifale spearheaded the Western Samoa charge, and the Pacific Islanders clung on to claim a famous win.
Conclusion
Based on key metrics, such as shock factor and media coverage, Argentina’s victory over New Zealand was our clear winner in terms of the greatest upsets in international rugby.
However, history has proved that minnows can defy the odds and pull off shock results. The iconic upsets discussed showcase the thrill and the unpredictability of rugby, and they explain that anything is possible.
Charles Perrin is a highly experienced sports betting content writer with over six years of working with some of the leading sportsbooks in the UK, including bet365 and William Hill.