Cricket
Dhoni vs. Kohli: A Weighted Statistical Analysis to Determine India's More Successful Test Captain
The debate about the best Indian Test captain has been raging amid speculation about MS Dhoni’s IPL career. SportsBoom has analysed the data to see if his leadership surpassed that of Virat Kohli. Indian cricket has a long-standing debate: who was more successful as a Test captain -calm and strategic MS Dhoni or aggressive leader Virat Kohli? The role of a skipper has many factors that are often difficult to fully quantify, such as team building, inspiration, management and pure tactical skills.
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MS Dhoni and Virat Kohli/Getty Images
When comparing Dhoni and Kohli’s Test captaincy, key criteria like number of matches as skipper and success rate can help settle the argument.
While a definitive answer is complex, SportsBoom attempts to give a quantitative perspective by analysing the key metrics using a weighted methodology.
Part 1 - The ‘SB Score’: A Weighted Look at Test Captaincy Metrics
MS Dhoni/Getty Images
To offer a structured statistical comparison for the most successful Indian Test captain, the ‘SB Score’ considers two primary indicators with specific weightings.
Raw statistics for matches captained and win/loss ratio are normalised before applying these weights.
- Matches captained: 40% weightage (measures longevity and sustained leadership)
- Win/loss ratio: 60% weightage (looks at the effectiveness of the player and their winning habit, which carries a higher importance in this model)
| Player | Span | Matches | Won | Lost |
| V Kohli (IND) | 2014-2022 | 68 | 40 | 17 |
| MS Dhoni (IND) | 2008-2014 | 60 | 27 | 18 |
‘SB Score’ Results
The ‘SB Score’ - Test Captaincy, Statistically Derived and Ranked
| Player | SB Score |
| Virat Kohli | 1.000 |
| MS Dhoni | 0.736 |
Based on this weighted statistical model, Virat Kohli (SB Score: 1.000) is ranked ahead of MS Dhoni (SB Score: 0.736).
This is primarily driven by Kohli’s superior win/loss ratio, which carried a 60% weightage, alongside his greater number of matches captained.
Part 2 - The Expert and Media View: ‘Industry Insights’
‘Industry Insights’ are a reflection of a consensus from surveyed expert opinions, historical rankings, and an analysis of prominent media, assigning points based on who is more frequently cited as the more impactful or successful Test captain for India, in comparative discussions.
| Captain | ESPNcri cinfo Records | Cricbuzz Analysis | Hindusta n Times Feature | IndiaTod ay Report | Reddit r/IndiaCr icket | ICC Total Team Recognit ion | Total |
| Virat Kohli | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| MS Dhoni | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
In terms of ‘Industry Insights’, Virat Kohli (6 points) also holds the edge over MS Dhoni (4 points) among the surveyed sources, suggesting a stronger leaning towards Kohli in expert and media consensus regarding their Test captaincy success.
Part 3 - The Combined Perspective: The ‘SB Market Index’
To calculate the final ‘SB Market Index’, SportsBoom combined the statistically-derived ‘SB Score’ (with a 20% weightage) with ‘Industry Insights’ (with an 80% weightage), weighting expert opinions more heavily.
Virat Kohli /Getty Images
SB Market Index’ Calculation and Results
| Rank | Player | SB Score (Value) | SB Score (Weighted ) | Industry Insights (Value) | Industry Insights (Weighted ) | SB Market Index |
| 1 | Virat Kohli | 1.000 | 0.2000 | 6 | 4.8 | 5.0000 |
| 2 | MS Dhoni | 0.736 | 0.1472 | 4 | 3.2 | 3.3472 |
SportsBoom’s multi-layered analysis, culminating in the ‘SB Market Index’ which heavily weights ‘Industry Insights’ (80%), Virat Kohli scored higher (SB Market Index: 5.0000) ahead of MS Dhoni (SB Market Index: 3.3472) as India’s most successful Test captain within this model’s parameters.
India Test Captaincy Record Comparison: A Brief Overview of Their Eras
MS Dhoni
In the longest format, MSD took over as captain from the legendary Anil Kumble and led India to one of its most successful eras, a record that translated to ODI and T20 glory as well. Under the wicketkeeper-batsman, India made history by reaching #1 in the ICC Test rankings in November 2009. Dhoni played a pivotal role in the same year, scoring above 1,000 runs at an average of above 70. His success as a skipper has been attributed to his calmness under pressure, trusting of his instinct and backing players to find their form, although some have criticised his team’s struggles against the likes of Australia and England.
Virat Kohli
Taking over the role from Dhoni in the 2014/2015 season, Kohli is considered the most successful Indian Test captain due to his win ratio, although his intensity has not always endeared him to the fans. His milestones included reaching the top of the Test batting rankings, leading India to a record-equalling nine-series Test cricket winning streak, and scoring the most runs by an Indian batsman in a calendar year. Importantly, he also led India to its first-ever Test Series win in Australia, which included equalling Sachin Tendulkar’s record for centuries against the Aussies in the longest format. Kohli’s success was also attributed to his passion and unshakeable desire to win.
Disclaimer: This analysis uses verified career statistics and a specific weighted model incorporating surveyed 'Industry Insights' and a normalization process for the SB Score. Different methodologies, weightings, or sources could yield different conclusions. This is for illustrative and discussion purposes.
Bruce Douglas has more than 12 years of experience in local news media. He has worked at all levels of print and online publication, from crime and politics to photography, newspaper layout, proofreading, mentoring, sub-editing, and leading a newsroom. He played numerous sports at the school level and enjoys keeping up to date.