Cricket
Biggest T20 World Cup Upsets: USA vs Pakistan Tops the List
The high-pressure setting of the T20 World Cup has often been the perfect recipe for major upsets at the elite level, where underdog nations did the impossible against world champions.
Edgar Schiferli /Getty Images
Industry Insights
Al Jazeera highlighted that these T20 World Cup shocks reflect the format’s volatility and the rapid rise of Associate and emerging teams - exemplified by the USA’s 2024 win over Pakistan and Nepal’s 2014 debut victory over Afghanistan.
Across other industry coverage, analysts have underscored two trends: 1 - T20’s shorter format amplifies variance so well-prepared underdogs can upset established teams; 2 - these upsets accelerate interest and investment in non- traditional cricket nations, validating ICC expansion and development programs.
Methodology
Primary source: Al Jazeera.
Evaluation parameters (how picks were chosen and scored):
- Pre-match gap - looking at the difference in ICC ranking or perceived strength (qualitative from match reports)
- Match context - taking in account the tournament stage (group, knockout), host advantage, stakes (e.g., elimination, title chase)
- Result magnitude - factoring in the margin of victory and whether the match required a Super Over or late drama
- Key performers and turning points - considering individual innings, bowling spells, fielding moments cited in match reports
- Legacy and impact - assessing the immediate tournament effect (e.g., momentum, qualification), broader consequences for the losing/winning nation (investment, reputation)
- Contemporary coverage - looking at the volume and tone of media reaction (as reported by the primary source).
Scoring: Each upset is assessed against the parameters above and assigned an SB Market
Index score from 0-10 (higher score = bigger upset). Scores reflect the combined weight of surprise, context, and lasting impact.
SB Market Index Table
| Rank | Match (year) | Underdog | Favourite | Result (brief) | Tournament Stage | SB Market Index (1-10) |
| 1 | USA vs Pakistan (2024) | USA | Pakistan | USA upset Pakistan - upset sealed in dramatic finish (Super Over/ tight finish reported) | Group stage (co-host) | 9.8 |
| 2 | The Netherlands vs England (2009) | The Netherlands | England | The Netherlands chased down England at Lord’s to win inaugural WT20 match | Group stage | 9.2 |
| 3 | Nepal vs Afghanistan (2014) | Nepal | Afghanistan | Nepal won by 9 runs on debut - disciplined bowling + captaincy | Group stage/ debut match | 8.9 |
| 4 | Namibia vs Sri Lanka (2022) | Namibia | Sri Lanka | Namibia defended 163 and bowled Sri Lanka out - 55-run win | Group stage | 8.7 |
| 5 | Afghanistan vs West Indies (2016) | Afghanistan | West Indies | Afghanistan won by 6 wickets - spinners dismantled the Windies | Group stage | 8.5 |
Match Profiles
USA vs Pakistan (2024)
Few would have predicted the outcome of this dramatic group-state clash, as the 2024 edition co-hosts met the 2009 T20 World Cup champions in Dallas.
In a first-time T20 meeting between these nations, Pakistan posted a total of 159/7, which the United States matched thanks to Monank Patel’s important 50.
The match came down to a Super Over, with the Stars and Stripes benefitting from a tiring Mohammad Amir bowling three wide balls, to set a total of 18.
Pakistan, who had reached the semi-finals of six out of eight T20 World Cups, could only muster 13 as the USA won and ultimately reached the Super 8 stage.
The Netherlands vs England (2009)
England entered the 2009 edition as the gallant hosts, opening the T20 World Cup with a clash against the Netherlands at Lord’s that went against predictions.
The Lions started off with Ravi Bopara and Luke Wright posting a 102-run opening partnership, before the Dutch bowlers claimed five wickets for only 51 runs.
The Netherlands were under pressure early at 66-3, before Tom de Grooth smashed a crucial 49 from 30 balls, with Peter Borren posting a useful total of 30.
It was then up to Ryan ten Doeschate to take the Dutch over the line, with the crowd at Lord’s in awe as an overthrow saw England defeated on the final ball.
Nepal vs Afghanistan (2014)
The 2014 T20 World Cup began with the so-called group stage, where eight countries (mostly Associate nation minnows) battled for the last two spots in the Super 10.
Nepal and Afghanistan’s clash was one of the standouts, with the Afghanis a few years away from becoming an Affiliate and the Nepalese making their T20 WC debut.
With Group A still not yet decided, Nepal set a total of 141/5 through an important 56 from Subash Khakurel and a useful contribution of 37 from Sharad Vesawkar.
The Nepalese bowling attack then dug in and put the screws on Afghanistan through regular wickets and impressive economy, sealing the most unlikely of victories.
Namibia vs Sri Lanka (2022)
In a different version of cricketing history, Namibia might have advanced to the Super 12 round of the 2022 T20 World Cup after their remarkable win against Sri Lanka.
Batting first in Geeling, Australia, Jan Frylinck put on a Man of the Match performance for the Eagles, contributing 44 runs from 28 balls as part of a defensible 163/7.
The Namibian was also one of the standouts of his country’s bowling innings, with figures of 2-26 to accompany two apiece from David Wiese and Bernard Scholtz.
Sri Lanka was kept under pressure from the onset of their innings, with Bhanuka Rajapaksa (20 runs) and captain Dasun Shanaka (29 runs) the only notable mentions.
Afghanistan vs West Indies (2016)
In another first-time meeting with unexpected results, Afghanistan and West Indies met in the group stages of the 2016 T20 World Cup, which was hosted in India.
Despite the match having no stakes, with the Afghan Atalans eliminated and the Windies into the knockouts already, the outcome may well have affected the final.
Afghanistan posted a relatively low total of 123/7 in their allotted 20 overs, thanks to a quick 48 from 40 by Najibullah Zadran - the highest score of the entire game.
In reply, only Johnson Charles (22 runs) and Dwayne Bravo (28 runs) scored above 20, with Rashid Khan and Mohammad Nabi doing the damage with the ball.
West Indies simply ran out of steam during their chase, ending on 117/8, although they ultimately turned the corner and went on to claim the title that year.
Conclusion
Cricket continues to prove the truth of the adage ‘the ball is round’, with some near-certain wins for stronger teams ending in almost impossible defeats.
The outcomes of these underdog victories serve to strengthen the intrigue and appeal of the international game, where a result is never a sure thing.
Bruce Douglas has more than 12 years of experience in local news media. He has worked at all levels of print and online publication, from crime and politics to photography, newspaper layout, proofreading, mentoring, sub-editing, and leading a newsroom. He played numerous sports at the school level and enjoys keeping up to date.