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Islam Makhachev vs Arman Tsarukyan Preview: Odds, Tips and Predictions

Date: Saturday 18th January 2025 Venue: Intuit Dome, California, US Main Card Start Time: 3AM ET In this article, we will provide fight analysis, odds and betting tips for the upcoming UFC lightweight title clash between Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan.

Jake Staniland

Sports Writer

Last updated: 2025-01-17

Fact checked by:

Chad Nagel

Sports & Betting Editor

5 minutes read

SportsBoom offers honest and impartial bookmaker reviews to help you make informed choices. While we may earn commissions through affiliate links, our content remains independent and free from promotional influence. For more information, see our Content Transparency and How We Review pages.

Islam Makhachev of Russia celebrates his victory over Arman Tsarukyan

Islam Makhachev celebrates his victory over Arman Tsarukyan//Getty Images

Table of Contents

Dana White and the UFC have served up an absolute treat for MMA fans at the start of 2025 as we get to see the lightweight title headline at UFC 311 in the first pay-per-view of the year.

Here at SportsBoom, we want to focus on the main event which sees lightweight champion Islam Makhachev take on Arman Tsarukyan on January 18th at the Intuit Dome in California. For UFC betting insights and tips, we have put together a betting preview for you.

Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan have of course faced each other before, and while the champion holds the bragging rights, that fight was way back in 2019. Both fighters have grown in every aspect of mixed martial arts since then so we can't really read too much into the first fight.

This fight has all the makings to be a highly entertaining matchup, and this provides UFC fans to get in on the action via online gambling ‐ you can visit some of the best bookmaker websites here.

Pre-Fight Odds and Win Probability

Islam Makhachev: 2/7 (1.28) - 77.78%
Arman Tsarukyan: 13/5 (3.60) - 27.78%
Odds courtesy of Betway (subject to change)*

Last Five Fights

Islam Makhachev

26/02/2022: Islam Makhachev def Bobby Green via TKO in Round 1
22/10/2022: Islam Makhachev def Charles Oliveira via SUB in Round 2
12/02/2023: Islam Makhachev def Alexander Volkanovski via Decision
21/10/2023: Islam Makhachev def Alexander Volkanovski via KO in Round 1
01/06/2024: Islam Makhachev def Dustin Poirier via SUB in Round 5

Arman Tsarukyan

25/06/2022: Mateusz Gamrot def Arman Tsarukyan via Decision
17/12/2022: Arman Tsarukyan def Damir Ismagulov via Decision
17/06/2023: Arman Tsarukyan def Joaquim Silva via TKO in Round 3
02/12/2023: Arman Tsarukyan def Beneil Dariush via KO in Round 1
13/04/2024: Arman Tsarukyan def Charles Oliveira via Decision

Tale of the Tape

Attribute	Islam Makhachev	Arman Tsarukyan 2
Age	33	28
Height	5'10	5’7
Weight	155	155
Reach	70”	72”
Record	26-1	22-3
KO/TKO	5	9
Submission	12	5
Decisions	9	8

Islam Makhachev News

Islam Makhachev comes into this fight with no injury concerns.

Strategy: Although the Russian's striking has vastly improved over the last couple of years, Makhachev should be focusing on taking the challenger down to reduce the risk of being hurt on the feet.

Arman Tsarukyan News

Arman Tsarukyan comes into this fight with no injury concerns.

Strategy: The Armenian fighter has the speed and striking advantage in this one, so it's imperative that Tsarukyan is able to stuff the takedown attempts of the champion and then get to work in the stand-up.

Suggested Bets

If you love betting on MMA, here are some bets you can place at some of the top UFC sportsbooks.

Arman Tsarukyan to Win Outright (Odds at 4.00, 3/1, 25% - via Stake):
Islam Makhachev is an absolute machine, but the same can be said for Arman Tsarukyan. There is a lot of talk coming from the Russian's camp about him chasing the welterweight title; maybe he is overlooking Tsarukyan a little bit.
Will the Fight Go the Distance? Yes (Odds at 1.73, 8/11, 57.9% - via Betway):
Both fighters are as tough as they come and have the mental resilience to overcome difficult situations. We can see both fighters getting into trouble at some point in this fight, whether that be a compromised position on the ground or absorbing a big shot. However, their previous meeting ended via decision, and four of their last ten bouts have also gone the distance.
Islam Makhachev to Win By Any Finish (Odds at 2.5, 6/4, 40% - via Betway):
Four of Islam Makhachev's last five fights has seen the Russian finish his opponent either by KO/TKO or submission. It wouldn't be overly shocking if the champion was to pull off another win by this fashion, however, Tsarukyan's only losses in the UFC have been via decision, highlighting his toughness.

Value Bets

Here are some value bets to consider for this upcoming UFC bout.

Arman Tsarukyan to Win By Any Finish (Odds at 6.00, 5/1, 16.7% - via Betway):
We really think the value is on the side of Arman Tsarukyan in this fight. The Armenian fighter has 14 victories via stoppage and he certainly has the tools to make it 15 at UFC 311. Tsarukyan has the speed and striking advantage, but he's also an adept grappler in his own right.
Arman Tsarukyan to Win in Round 3 (Odds at 29.00, 28/1, 3.4% - via Betway):
This price looks really appealing. Not only are these huge odds, in Makhachev's last two fights that have gone beyond 2 rounds, his opponents seem to enjoy more success, in addition to Makhachev's volume of grappling dropping off. On the flip side, Tsarukyan has proven he can continue an unbelievably high pace from round 1-3.
Arman Tsarukyan to Win Outright (Odds at 4.00, 3/1, 25% - via Stake):
This selection, from the suggested bet section, has also been placed in this value bet section simply because it cannot be ignored as a good value bet option. If anybody in the lightweight division can dethrone Makhachev then that man is Arman Tsarukyan.

Prediction: Arman Tsarukyan to Win

While Islam Makhachev's striking has improved since their first meeting, Arman Tsarukyan has only gotten better himself across the board. The challenger possesses excellent striking and strong grappling, and we fancy him to cause an upset

Tsarukyan will push the pace from round 1 and eventually deplete the gas tank of the champion, thus leading to a finish in round 3, 4, or 5.

Jake Staniland Sports Writer

Jake Staniland is a sports writer who excels in covering a wide range of sports: football, combat sports and the NFL - All three subjects are his lifelong passions.

Jake is a boyhood Sheffield United fan, which is often a curse that he thanks his family for. His favourite Blades player ever is Billy Sharp