MMA
UFC 314: Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction
Date: Sunday 13 April Time: 3:00 AM BST Venue: Kaseya Center, Miami, Florida, USA SportsBoom previews UFC 314: Volkanovski vs Lopes, a defining clash for the featherweight golden glory scheduled for Saturday, April 12, 2025, at the Kaseya Center in Miami. The stakes could not be higher with the vacated belt up for grabs. For fans interested in getting in on MMA action and for insights into MMA sports betting, check out the best online MMA betting offers and a full list of trusted MMA betting sites.
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Alexander Volkanovski is seen on stage during the UFC 314 press conference / Getty Images
Alexander Volkanovski makes his way back into the cage for UFC 314 to battle the Brazilian phenom, Diego Lopes, for a vacant featherweight title.
Volkanovski, the former champ, is looking to bounce back after a brutal KO loss to Ilia Topuria at UFC 298 – a result that ended his dominant title reign and left fans wondering whether the 35-year-old could still hang with the division’s best. Now, with Topuria having vacated the belt to move up to lightweight, Volkanovski has a golden opportunity to reclaim his throne and silence the doubters once more.
For Diego Lopes, this is the ultimate rise-from-nowhere story. After debuting on short notice less than a year ago, the 29-year-old has earned this shot with three statement wins – all by stoppage – and now faces the toughest test of his life.
Adding to the spectacle, Michael Chandler and Paddy Pimblett clash in a co-main event stacked with tension, flair, and rankings pressure. UFC 314 promises fireworks from start to finish!
Pre-Fight Odds and Win Probability: Volkanovski Slight Favourite
The betting odds for the UFC Fight Night main event between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes are shaping up with the former edging the odds:
Alexander Volkanovski: 8/13 (1.62) – 61.7% win probability
Diego Lopes: 7/5 (2.40) – 41.7% win probability
Odds courtesy of Stake, subject to change.
If you're diving into online sports betting, it's crucial to track movement in pre-fight markets – and SportsBoom has got you covered for expert analysis and updates across all major MMA events.
Tale of the Tape
| Attribute | Alexander Volkanovski | Diego Lopes |
| Age | 35 | 29 |
| Height | 168 cm (5’6”) | 180 cm (5’11”) |
| Weight | 66kg (145 lbs) | 66kg (145 lbs) |
| Reach | 182 cm (71.5”) | 183 cm (72”) |
| Record | 26-4-0 | 24-6-0 |
| KO/TKO | 50% (13 wins) | 38% (10 wins) |
| Submission | 12% (3 wins) | 46% (12 wins) |
| Decisions | 38% (10 wins) | 15% (4 wins) |
Volkanovski's unmatched experience and cardio are battle-tested with a proven track record at the championship level, complemented by a compact frame that aids his low centre of gravity and takedown defence. Lopes brings unpredictable striking, slick jiu-jitsu, and size advantages.
Alexander Volkanovski News
Alexander Volkanovski enters UFC 314 with everything to prove and nothing left to fear. After suffering back-to-back losses, including a devastating KO defeat to Ilia Topuria at UFC 298, the former featherweight king is hungry to silence critics and remind the world why he once ruled the division.
Now 35, Volkanovski returns with a full training camp behind him and a shot at reclaiming the vacant title. The future Hall of Famer is known for his relentless pace, high fight IQ, and championship-level conditioning, which he showcased in six featherweight title victories. He has built a legacy on breaking opponents down over five rounds.
He unquestionably faces an unpredictable and dangerous contender in Diego Lopes, but Volkanovski thrives in chaos. He has shown at the highest level an ability to adjust mid-fight, shut down grapplers or be the aggressor in exchanges, and stay composed under pressure. The Aussie remains unmatched in the division.
With Lopes being a major threat on the ground, we cannot forget how Volk memorably defended his belt against elite jiu-jitsu specialist Brian Ortega at UFC 266, surviving two deep submission attempts, including a mounted guillotine, which goes down as one of the grittiest title defences ever.
A win here wouldn’t just restore his status as champion but also mark one of the most impressive comebacks in modern UFC history. Expect a focused and fired-up Volk on fight night.
Diego Lopes News
Diego Lopes has become one of the most electrifying names in the UFC over the past 12 months. From a late-notice underdog to a title challenger, the Brazilian's journey has been rewarded. After scoring three stoppage wins in a row, Lopes has proven he’s more than just hype – he’s dangerous.
The 30-year-old holds advantages in height, reach and boasts obvious knockout power. His recent resume includes a dominant win over Dan Ige and a massive decision over Brian Ortega – a statement-making result against a proven featherweight contender and former opponent of his current opponent. These performances have solidified his reputation and earned him a shot at the title with serious potential to come out victorious.
However, outside of Ige and Ortega, Lopes hasn’t faced many of the division’s top-ranked names. UFC 314 will mark his first bout against a former champion and someone with elite five-round experience.
Still, Lopes has proven time and time again that he only needs a moment to turn a fight upside down – and he’ll have 25 minutes to do it.
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Suggested Bets
For those interested in wagering on UFC 314: Volkanovski vs Lopes, here are some suggested bets based on current odds from Stake.
Please note that odds are subject to change.
Fight to Go the Distance – Yes: Volkanovski has gone to a decision in 10 of his last 14 UFC wins, and while Lopes is a finisher, he has not finished his last two opponents, who have been his toughest tests to date. 4/7 (1.57) – 63.7%
Volkanovski to Win by Decision: Known for controlling tempo and racking up rounds, Volk has 14 decision wins. 11/10 (2.10) – 47.6%
Over 2.5 Rounds: Even if Lopes brings aggression, Volkanovski has the tools to extend the fight. 3/5 (1.60) – 62.5%
For sports betting in the world of MMA, staying informed about the fighters' form and any last-minute changes is crucial. For comprehensive analyses and updates on UFC events, consider exploring sports betting online for major or minor details that could sway your pick for the better.
Value Bets
For those seeking higher returns on UFC 314: Volkanovski vs Lopes, here are two value bets worth considering, based on current odds from Stake.
These outcomes may be less likely but offer stronger payouts for bold punters, and taking advantage of bet sites with a welcome bonus can provide extra value when placing wagers on these high-potential outcomes.
Volkanovski by KO/TKO: He could grind Lopes out with pressure and finish late, as he has done to many high-level opponents throughout his career. 3/1 (4.00) – 25%
Fight to End in Round 1: Given both fighters' aggressive styles and finishing capabilities, there's potential for an early stoppage. 8/1 (9.00) – 11.1%
Prediction: Volkanovski by Decision
Alexander Volkanovski’s experience in five-round title fights, strategic fight IQ, and measured pressure make him the safer pick to win this contest over the distance. While Lopes is an explosive finisher with real danger in both his hands and mostly submissions, the Aussie has consistently nullified the strengths of high-level opponents across 25-minute battles.
Expect Volk to weather the early storm and start to take over by the end of the second round, using feints, angles, and relentless pace to outwork Lopes on the feet. He’ll likely mix in level changes and clinch control to disrupt the Brazilian’s rhythm and blunt any momentum.
Lopes may find moments of success, but Volkanovski’s composure, cardio, and ability to win minutes – not just moments – should be the difference here. He’s shown he can survive deep submission threats (as he did against Ortega), and his championship pedigree should carry him to a calculated and convincing decision win.
Joshua Gaillard is a freelance editor and dedicated Arsenal fan, known for creating fact-based, insightful content. His work, featured on top South African websites, blends analysis with engaging storytelling for clear, impactful articles.
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