Where have Brazil's bettors gone three weeks into the ban?

Are visits to unlicensed sites still rising?

Visits to unlicensed sites rose after 6 October, but they peaked within days and have since eased. 

"Yes, but modestly, and they are not still rising," Makarochkina said.

The share of Blask's panel reaching a licensed site fell from 6.3% on a normal day to 0.55% in the first week offline, and to 0.25% by 13 to 17 October. What remains is people landing on block pages.

Unlicensed reach rose 16% above normal in 6 to 12 October, peaking on 7 and 8 October. By 13 to 17 October it had eased to 8% above normal.

Those who have gone offshore are using unlicensed sites more heavily, viewing about 35% to 39% more pages per panellist than before the ban. Makarochkina said this is "consistent with former licensed bettors arriving and exploring."

The switching rate among licensed-only players rose from 1.3 times normal in the first week of the ban to 1.7 times in the first week offline. It held at 1.5 times on 11 to 17 October. 

"It is not accelerating," she said.

Licensed reach was already sliding before sites went dark on 6 October, while unlicensed reach climbed for four days and has drifted back since.

The fall in pop-under traffic may reflect Brazil's advertising clampdown. Makarochkina stressed that in-app Telegram and WhatsApp traffic, betting apps and sideloaded APKs are invisible to the mostly-desktop panel. "We see no rise in APK download pages, but that is 'not visible', not 'not happening'," she said.

1win takes the lion's share

One offshore brand has captured almost all of the visible gain. 

"1win accounts for about 95% of the net gain in offshore branded search," Makarochkina said. Its daily index has run at six to eight times its September level since 6 October, making it Brazil's third-largest betting brand by search over 6 to 10 October, behind only Betano and Bet365.

Bingo Em Casa and Melbet are at about four times their September level, while smaller names such as WJBet, 90bet and 9Gbet have entered Brazil's top 30. In panel visits, a Melbet mirror domain rose about sevenfold, and Parimatch and Shuffle rose three to fourfold.

Licensed brands' international domains also drew about five times as many Brazilian visitors after 6 October, mostly stake.com at about nine times its pre-ban level. Blask notes that Stake holds a Brazilian licence and that it sees visits, not whether visitors could open accounts or bet.

Offshore traffic has also tilted towards sport. Among classifiable visits, 59% now include a sports page, against 27% before the ban. There is no rush to crypto casinos, with tracked on-chain deposits 3% to 7% below pre-ban levels.

Will Brazil follow India's path?

So far Brazil looks slower than India did, but Makarochkina cautioned that it is early. "About a quarter of former legal bettors are visible on any betting site, against about half normally. But that is two weeks in, not three months," she said.

Blask followed 657 people in its Indian panel who used domestic real-money gaming sites before India's August 2025 ban. Between September and November 2025, 62.9% of them visited a betting site and 61.0% visited an offshore one. Makarochkina clarified that the company's 7 October LinkedIn post, which said 63% were "still betting on offshore sites", strictly meant 63% were still betting and 61% were offshore.

For context, 73.5% of comparable licensed Brazilian bettors were still betting over the same three months, when there was no ban. India therefore kept about 86% of the normal rate. However, 78% of the Indian group had already visited offshore sites before the ban.

Why Brazil could move faster

• "The same products are on offer offshore," Makarochkina said. Indian players had to swap fantasy and rummy for offshore casinos and sportsbooks, while Brazilians find the same sports betting and casino offshore, often from the same brands.
• Supply is abundant, through numbered mirrors and traffic bought via piracy and adult sites.

Why it could be slower

• Many licensed bettors had never gone offshore. Before the ban, 57% of Brazilian bettors in the panel had visited an unlicensed site in the previous 90 days, against 78% in the Indian group.
• Pix blocking adds friction, "although it leaks through intermediaries, as India's experience with UPI shows," she said.
• The ban may not last. Brazil's is a provisional measure under review by the Supreme Court and Congress, whereas India passed a permanent Act.

Makarochkina also flagged the limits of the comparison. "India banned an unlicensed-in-practice domestic gaming industry (fantasy, rummy) with no national licensing system. Brazil banned a licensed betting market with 25 million customers," she said. The two panels also differ in size and device mix, and both measure visits rather than money staked.

What happens if the ban is suspended?

If the Supreme Court suspends the measure, Blask expects most of the visible decline to reverse quickly. "We would expect most of the visible decline to reverse within days to a couple of weeks, though not all of it. This is an inference, not a measurement," Makarochkina said.

She pointed to three signals. Search for the biggest licensed brands has held at 10% to 20% of normal even with the sites dark, so "most of the visible drop is people stopping, not people moving." Only about one in ten licensed-only players reaches an unlicensed site in a given week, so most have no new habit to undo. And demand returns fast when a brand comes back: Stake's search jumped to about nine times its September level on 8 to 10 October, the days a court order briefly let it keep operating.

Would players return to the same brands? "Mostly, we think, because most of them have not yet tried an alternative," she said. "The exception is 1win, which has gained a large audience during the ban and is likely to keep part of it. The longer the gap lasts, the more of that audience becomes permanent. In India, three months was enough."