What is Handicap Betting in Football?

Handicap betting is popular in football, particularly when one team is heavily favoured. It balances the scales by giving the underdog a virtual head start, making the odds more enticing than three-way betting in some instances and the betting landscape more competitive. Here’s a breakdown of how handicap betting works, including key types, strategies, and examples from the recent El Clasico match, where Barcelona defeated Real Madrid 4-0 on October 26, 2024.

Introduction to Handicap Betting

In football, handicap betting is a method used to make matches between uneven teams more attractive to bettors. Bookmakers assign a "handicap" (a goal advantage or deficit) to one of the teams. This handicap is subtracted or added to the final score, and the outcome is then used to determine if a bet wins or loses. 

The underdog might receive a +1 or +2 goal advantage, while the favourite could be assigned a -1 or -2 goal deficit. This levels the playing field, balancing the odds and creating a scenario where both teams can be equally appealing to bet on.

For example, if Barcelona plays a lower-ranked team, a handicap of -1 or -2 might be applied to Barcelona. This means Barcelona would need to win by two or three goals respectively for a bet on them to win.

Types of Handicap Betting

Be careful when searching handicap markets, as the manner in which they are displayed may be different from one site to the next.

Asian handicaps are used in some instances and traditional handicaps in others. The rules of each type of handicap bet differ.

Traditional Handicap: 

This form involves whole-number handicaps (e.g., -1, +1). To cover the handicap, the favoured team must win by more than the specified margin. If Barcelona has a -1 handicap against Real Madrid and wins by a single goal, the match would result in a push, and the bettor would receive a refund. But if Barcelona wins by two or more goals, the bet would win.

Asian Handicap: 

Asian handicap betting uses smaller increments, such as -0.5, -1.5, +0.5, +1.5. This system eliminates the possibility of a draw, as bets are either won or lost. For instance, if Barcelona has a -1.5 handicap and wins by two or more goals, a bet on Barcelona would win. But if they win by only one goal, the bet would lose. Asian handicaps are popular because they simplify outcomes by removing the possibility of a tie.

Basics for Novice Bettors

The basics of handicap betting essentially boil down to the principle that if you bet on a team in the -1 handicap market, the score is measured as if they started the game one goal behind. If you bet on them in the +1.5 handicap market, the score is measured as if they started the game 1.5 goals ahead.

• A -1 handicap means the team must win by more than one goal to win the bet. A +1 handicap gives the team an extra goal added to their final score.

• If a team’s winning or losing margin is exactly the same you betted on, a push is triggered and you get a refund. This can only happen with traditional handicaps (e.g. -1, +1) and not Asian handicaps (e.g. -0.5, +0.5).

• If you bet on Barcelona in the -2 handicap market with a traditional handicap, a 2-0 Barcelona win triggers a push and a refund but you don’t win the bet. If you bet on them in the -1.5 handicap market and they win 2-0, you win the bet and it pays out fully.

Advanced Strategies for Experienced Bettors

Handicap betting can help experienced bettors maximise returns, especially when betting on favourites with low odds.

• Applying a Handicap to the Favourite: Betting on a favourite with a -1 or -2 handicap increases potential returns compared to a standard moneyline bet.

• Betting on Larger Handicaps: If a team is likely to dominate, a -2 or -3 handicap can offer better odds. However, this requires confidence that the team will win by a large margin.

• Factors to Consider: Team form, injuries, historical performance, and match context are crucial. For instance, if Barcelona enters El Clasico in great form, a bettor might confidently take a -2 handicap, expecting a strong victory margin.

Using handicap betting strategically can boost payouts in situations where low odds on the favourite would otherwise limit returns.

Example: El Clasico - Real Madrid vs. Barcelona

El Clasico on October 26, 2024 saw Barcelona defeat Real Madrid 4-0. Let’s see how handicap betting would apply:

• Example 1: -1 Handicap on Barcelona: Betting on Barcelona with a -1 handicap means they needed to win by at least two goals. Since they won by four, this bet would win.

• Example 2: -2 Handicap on Barcelona: A -2 handicap meant Barcelona needed to win by at least three goals. With a 4-0 victory, this bet would also be successful.

This example demonstrates how applying different handicap levels could yield wins with varying odds based on the expected margin of victory. Real Madrid’s defeat was so heavy that even betting on them in the +3.5 handicap market would have been unsuccessful.

SportsBoom Suggests

Handicap betting can be advantageous in matches where the favourite has very short odds. Suppose a top team such as Barcelona is heavily favoured against a lower-ranked team, but the odds on a straight win are low. Betting on a -1 or -2 handicap can offer more appealing returns if Barcelona is likely to win by a large margin.

Example: If Barcelona’s odds are too low against a team such as Rayo Vallecano that is not expected to challenge them, placing a -1 or -2 handicap bet can provide greater value. This approach works when the favourite is in top form and facing an opponent with limited chances of success.