Football
EPL Nottingham Forest vs Southampton Preview: Tips, Odds, and Prediction
With excitement building and anticipation growing ahead of kickoff, Premier League betting fans are already diving into the odds and assessing both teams, hoping to find the best value. For a detailed, in-depth look at the match, be sure to check out our full preview.
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Nottingham Forest v Southampton FC - Premier League//Getty Images
Nuno Espirito Santo’s Nottingham Forest welcomes Dragan Solak’s struggling Southampton side to the City Ground on Sunday, January 19th.
At the time of writing, Nottingham Forest have won all their last six fixtures, scoring 12 goals, keeping five clean sheets and only letting in one single goal. For Southampton, it’s the opposite; they haven’t won any of their last 10 Premier League matches.
Over the course of history, Nottingham Forest have won 53 games against Southampton, who have only won 39 back. Nottingham Forest have won all of their last three Premier games against Southampton.
Southampton are rock bottom of the league and unlikely to move out of 20th position with just one win in 20 games and 44 goals against – 2.2 per game.
This season’s dark horses, Nottingham Forest, are third in the league with the same points as second-placed Arsenal. Although they have only scored 29 goals this season – the least amount of any of the top 12 teams – it’s their rock-solid defence that has only conceded 19 goals, the joint second-best record in the league with the leaders, Liverpool. Only Arsenal have let in one less with 18.
Southampton’s lack of goals could see them struggle away from home in this fixture, but a 3-0 victory over Swansea in the FA Cup third round last weekend could give them a reminder of what it feels like to win and potentially spur them on in this mid-January tie. Although they have a visit to Old Trafford in-between to contend with.
Let’s take a closer look at this match with stats, latest news, team lineups, predictions and betting odds.
Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability: Nottingham Forest Overwhelming Favourites
Home: 21/50 (1.42) – 70,4%
Draw: 19/50 (4.80) – 20,8%
Away: 13/2 (7.40) – 13,5%
*Odds courtesy of Betway, subject to change*
Head-to-Head Record
Last Five Meetings
24/08/24: Southampton 0-1 Nottingham Forest
08/05/23: Nottingham Forest 4-3 Southampton
04/01/23: Southampton 0-1 Nottingham Forest
14/01/12: Nottingham Forest 0-3 Southampton
10/09/11: Southampton 3-2 Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest: Current Form – WWWWWW
Nottingham Forest have been the biggest surprise of any of the 20 teams in the top-flight this season.
Their success has largely been due to their impenetrable defence and the abilities of their shot-stopping extraordinaire, Matz Sels. They can currently boast five clean sheets in a row, which is an incredible feat in such a competitive and difficult league.
Only promoted to the Premier League in 2022, they finished 17th last season, narrowly avoiding relegation by just six points. This season, they are only six points from the top and have won more games than Arsenal above them.
Their current form in the top-flight is their best in almost 60 years, since their 1966-67 season, when they mounted a challenge for the First Division trophy, only to be pipped by Manchester United, a team they have already beaten this season.
They are currently eight points higher in 20 games than they finished their entire last season’s campaign on. Of the 70 teams in history to have secured at least 40 points from their opening 20 games of a Premier League season, only four have failed to finish in the top four, so Champions League qualification is currently looking very likely for West Bridgford outfit, who won back-to-back European Cups under Brian Clough in 1978-80.
Key Players To Watch
- Chris Wood – The New Zealand international currently has 12 goals in 20 EPL games, just two off his best haul in the top division, which he achieved once with Burnley in 2019-20 and once last season with Forest.
- Anthony Elanga – Swedish international Elanga is a product of the Manchester United youth system, winning their Jimmy Murphy Young Player of the Year award in 2020 after joining at the age of 12. He also won the EFL Cup with United in 2022-23 and is an FA Cup (2022-23) and Europa League (2020-21) runner-up.
- Matz Sels – Belgian goalkeeper Matz Sels has been instrumental between the posts for Forest this season, performing so well that he has the most clean sheets in the league with nine, one above league toppers Liverpool.
Nottingham Forest Team News
Goalkeeper Wayne Hennessey has signed a short-term contract with the club despite initially being released by Forest. The first-choice keeper for Wales has secured more clean sheets (40) than any other player for the country, breaking Neville Southall’s record.
Youngster Aaron Bott is sidelined with a knee injury.
In-form striker Chris Wood is reportedly about to put pen to paper on a new contract for the club, meaning he won’t be leaving on a free transfer in the summer. It seems an agreement has been reached on a 12-month contract with the option of a further year for the 33-year-old.
Southampton: Current Form – LLLDLL
The Saints are having a rough time since their return to the Premier League this season. Having finished fourth in the Championship last year, their prospects of staying up were not looking good anyway, but it could actually end in even worse than relegation if that’s even possible.
Derby’s famous 2007-8 season where they finished last with the lowest points tally (11) ever seen in the Premier League, winning just one game and a -69-goal difference.
Southampton have also won only once and have just six points from 20 league games. The fact that Southampton are the leading team for errors leading to goals, with 11, doesn’t bode well for them turning this disastrous season around.
In the last 122 years, only five teams have ever had six points or less at this stage in the season and all five were ultimately relegated.
New boss Ivan Juric has been tasked with survival following the sacking of Russell Martin. The Croat was able to make an impact despite a 1-0 defeat to West Ham in his first game in charge, but The Saints looked a little livelier with 6ft 7in striker Paul Onauchu up front, also limiting their victors to just two shots on target.
They scored in their next game against Crystal Palace and only lost by a goal at 2-1. But then came a 5-0 thrashing at the hands of Brentford in their opening game of the year, and they next have to contend with Manchester United at Old Trafford, which is like a cup final game to most teams.
They visit the Theatre of Dreams off the back of a 3-0 FA Cup win over Swansea, who are 12th in the Championship. It should provide enough motivation to give The Red Devils a good game, but that remains to be seen.
Key Players To Watch
- Camron Archer – Although just two goals in the league this season, 23-year-old Archer has scored the most goals in competitions with five so far.
- Adam Armstrong – Striker Adam Armstrong, 26 from Newcastle, has scored three goals, plus two assists so far this season. Only Kyle Walker-Peters and Adam Lallana have contributed with two assists also this season.
- Joe Aribo – Midfielder Aribo, 28 from London, won the Scottish Premiership with Rangers in 2021 and the Scottish Cup the following year. His strengths are driving the ball forward with his long legs and covering ground to get up and down the pitch. He’s scored two goals in the league for The Saints this season, which makes him joint top scorer with Archer, Armstrong and Tyler Dibling.
Southampton Team News
Brazilian left-back Wellington, 23 years old, has signed for the Saints and will wear the No. 34 shirt. The youngster signed in July but now officially joins after the end of Sao Paolo’s league campaign and contract expiry.
Two new coaches, Matteo Paro and Stjepan Ostojic, have now begun work with the squad at the Staplewood Campus.
Predicted Line-Ups
Nottingham Forest: 4-2-3-1
Sels; Aina, Milenkovic, Murillo, Williams; Dominguez, Anderson; Elanga, Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Wood.
Southampton: 3-4-3
Ramsdale; Harwood-Bellis, Bednarek, Wood; Bree, Ugochukwu, Aribo, Walker-Peters; Dibling, Onuachu, Sulemana.
Suggested Bets
If you love betting on football, here are some bets you can place at some of the popular sportsbooks.
Match Winner & One Team to Score: The hosts to score only and to win at home is a realistic outcome. (5/4 with Betway) (2.31 with Pinnacle)
Correct Score: The odds for Nottingham Forest to win 3-0 are high. (10 with 1Win) (9.96 with Pinnacle)
1st Half Total Goals Over 2.5: For over 2.5 goals to be scored in the first half has very good odds. (19/4 with Betway) (8.5 with 1Win)
Value Bets
Anthony Elanga to Assist 1+ Goals: Always involved in the goals, Elanga to assist is definitely worth a punt. (3/1 with Betway)
Chris Wood to Score First: In-form striker, boosted by a new contract, could be up for this. (3/1 with Betway)
Exact Number of Goals – 3 or More: Southampton have averaged 2.23 goals against per game, so three or more goals scored is well worth a punt. (4.3 with Pinnacle)
Prediction: Nottingham Forest to Win
One team is destined for Champions League football and the other is doomed for relegation.
Nottingham Forest on their current incredible run are the strong favourites, while Southampton will be looking like lambs to the slaughter unless they can turn their fate around suddenly.
Forest have kept so many clean sheets this season, against far better teams than Southampton, such as Liverpool, Tottenham, Everton, and West Ham, so they should be able to keep out a team that has only scored 12 goals all season.
We predict Nottingham Forest to win 3-0 or higher.
Tim has over 27 years experience within the sports industry, working for football clubs Arsenal FC and Millwall FC, and boxing news websites British Boxing News, Boxing Social and Global Boxing News. His boxing articles have been published in Boxing News Magazine, national newspapers, plus many other major news outlets.
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