How to Calculate a Sportsbook Hold

Each and every online sportsbook has a hold. This simply refers to the percentage that a sportsbook makes on setting a line. The higher the hold, the more money they make. As such, it’s important to search out low hold bets whenever you can.

We’re going to take a look at everything you need to know about the hold in sports betting. From how to calculate it, to how it impacts probability, you’ll hopefully be an expert in low hold betting by the end!

What Exactly is Sportsbook Hold?

Every time a sportsbook gives odds, they’re suggesting a certain probability of something happening. It’s easiest to understand when we look at a sport where there can only be a win or loss (not a draw).

Calculating a Break Even

In this particular example, the favourite is assigned odds of -180 and the underdog is assigned odds of +150. If you take odds of +150 and bet $100, you’ll get a $150 profit if you win and $100 in losses if you lose. To work out a break-even you need to:
1.    Convert the moneyline odds to decimal (in this case +150 odds are 2.5 decimal odds).
2.    Then divide 1 by the decimal odds, in this case 0.4.
3.    We then multiply that answer by 100 to get the breakeven percentage of 40%.

This means, if that bettor won bets at odds of +150 40% of the time, they’d neither win nor lose money. Next, we need to work it out for the other side. -180 moneyline odds would give us a break even percentage of 64.29%.

Why Doesn’t it Add Up to 100?

If you take those breakeven percentages, you’d expect them to add up to 100 if they reflected the true chance of something happening. However, 64.29+40 = 104.29. That’s 4.29% more than 100%. So what gives?

This extra percentage is known as the hold. For most sportsbooks, it’s around 4 or 5 percent. So this one is a pretty average amount. What this means, is that sportsbooks can make a guaranteed profit, as not everybody is going to be able to win the required amount of the time on those lines.
 

How to Calculate Hold

To calculate the hold, you’ll need to get good at the calculations that we’ve covered above. What you’re really working out is the implied odds and the actual odds. The sportsbook sets the implied odds, the actual odds are the ones that add up to 100%.

You need to work out your breakeven points, add them together and then take away 100. The remainder is the hold! Of course, for many people, this is a lot of work, especially if you’re checking through multiple sportsbooks. So, the alternative is to use a free hold calculator. These work it all out for you, regardless of whether you’re using moneyline, decimal, or fractional odds.
 

Hold and Sportsbook Profitability

Now that you know how to calculate the hold, it’s worth looking into why it’s important. You can think of it like this: the more money a sportsbook makes from high holds, the more money bettors lose.

Looking at it like this only works for your long term betting strategy. After all, if you’re only concerned about the outcome of one bet, then you need to look for the best odds not necessarily the lowest hold. Let’s look into why this is a long-term strategy below.