Successful NFL Betting Strategies
Discover successful NFL betting strategies, from basic bet types to advanced techniques. Learn about point spreads, moneylines, over/unders, prop bets, parlays, futures, live betting, and more. Enhance your NFL betting skills with tips on research, bankroll management, and understanding betting lines.
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The world of NFL offers a wide variety of betting opportunities, from straightforward wagers to complex multi-bet strategies. But in order to get the most out of your next experience at the best online sportsbooks, you need to know some basic NFL betting rules.
Today, we’re going to explain everything you need to know about NFL betting. We’ll explain the most basic NFL bet types you can make, the best NFL betting strategy, and some other popular markets you can wager on.
So without further ado, let’s get down to business.
Core NFL Bet Types
When it comes to betting on NFL games, understanding the core bet types is crucial for making informed decisions. Here are the most common NFL betting strategies.
Point spread betting
Point spread betting is the most popular form of NFL wagering. It levels the playing field by giving the underdog a points advantage or the favourite a points disadvantage.
Example: If the New England Patriots are favoured by -7.5 points against the Miami Dolphins, the Patriots must win by 8 points or more for a bet on them to win. Conversely, a bet on the Dolphins would win if they lose by 7 points or less or win the game outright
Moneyline betting
A straightforward bet, an NFL moneyline betting strategy involves picking which team will win the game outright, without any point spreads.
Example: If the moneyline for the Kansas City Chiefs is -200 and for the Denver Broncos is +180, a $200 bet on the Chiefs would win $100 if they win, while a $100 bet on the Broncos would win $180 if they win
Over/Under betting
Also known as totals betting, an NFL over under betting strategy is when you wager on the total number of points scored in a game by both teams combined.
Example: If the Over/Under line is set at 48.5 points for a game between the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers, you can bet on whether the total points scored will be over or under 48.5
Prop bets
Proposition bets, or prop bets, are wagers on specific events within a game, not directly tied to the final outcome.
NFL prop bet examples
- Player props: Betting on individual player performances, such as the number of touchdowns thrown by a quarterback or the total rushing yards by a running back
- Team props: Wagering on team-specific outcomes, such as the first team to score or the total number of field goals made by a team
- Game props: Bets on particular events within the game, like whether there will be a safety or the total number of turnovers
Other Popular NFL Betting Markets
Once you have some experience with basic NFL bets, you can start to look at more complex bet types. Here are some to consider.
Parlay betting
NFL parlay betting strategy is when you combine multiple bets into one wager, with the condition that all bets (legs) must win for the parlay to pay out
Example: A parlay might include a moneyline bet on the Patriots, a point spread bet on the Cowboys, and an over/under bet on the Chiefs game. All three bets must win for the parlay to be successful
Futures betting
In futures betting, you bet on long-term outcomes, such as which team will win the Super Bowl, conference championships, or division titles.
Example: Placing a bet on the Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl before the season starts
Live (in-play) betting
An NFL live betting strategy is when you bet on a game while it’s in progress, with odds that change based on the game’s developments.
Example: Betting on the next team to score or the outcome of the next drive during the game
Halftime and quarter betting
As you can probably guess, half/quarter betting is when you predict the outcome of specific halves or quarters of a game.
Example: Betting on the score of the first half or the winner of the third quarter
Teaser betting
NFL teaser betting strategy is a parlay where you can adjust the point spreads or totals in your favour in exchange for a lower payout
Example: In a 6-point teaser, if the original spread is -7 for the Packers, you can adjust it to -1, making it easier for the Packers to cover the spread
Pleaser Betting
The opposite of a teaser, here you adjust the point spread against your favor for a higher payout.
Example: If the original spread is -7 for the Packers, you adjust it to -13, increasing the difficulty but also the potential payout
Round robin betting
A series of parlays combining multiple selections, where not all selections need to win for a payout.
Example: Choosing three teams (A, B, and C) and creating multiple two-team parlays (A&B, A&C, B&C). Even if one team loses, some parlays can still win
Top NFL Betting Strategies Explained
Effective betting strategies are essential for increasing your chances of success in NFL betting. Here are some top strategies to think about.
Research and analysis
● Study team performance: Analyse teams' past performances, including win/loss records, offensive and defensive statistics, and player injuries. Pay attention to how teams perform at home versus away
● Player analysis: Keep track of key players' form, injury status, and historical performance against specific opponents. Star players' availability can significantly impact a team's chances
Understand betting lines and value
● Shop around: Compare betting lines across multiple sportsbooks to find the best odds. Small differences in lines can lead to better returns in the long run
● Identify value bets: Look for lines that offer good value based on your research. A value bet is one where you believe the sportsbook has underestimated the true probability of an outcome
Manage your bankroll
● Set a budget: Determine how much money you are willing to risk and stick to it. Never bet more than you can afford to lose
● Avoid chasing losses: Stick to your strategy and avoid making impulsive bets to recover from losses. Chasing losses can lead to poor decision-making and further losses
Specialise in specific bets
● Focus on specific markets: Specializing in a particular type of bet, such as point spreads or player props, can help you develop expertise and make more informed decisions
● Leverage your knowledge: Use your knowledge of teams, players, and matchups to find edges in less popular markets where lines may be less accurate
Consider situational factors
● Weather conditions: Weather can significantly impact game outcomes, especially in outdoor stadiums. Consider how rain, wind, or snow might affect the teams' performance and game strategy
● Travel and rest: Teams traveling across time zones or playing on short rest may be at a disadvantage. Factor in travel schedules and rest days when making your bets
Monitor line movements
● Early lines: Pay attention to the opening lines and how they move throughout the week. Early line movements can indicate where sharp money (professional bettors) is being placed
● Public vs. sharp money: Understand the difference between public betting trends and sharp money. Sharp money often influences line movements, providing clues about where the smart bets are
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