Exclusive: Why Former NBA Awards Voters See Value in Dyson Daniels at +2500 for DPOY

Your author is a former official NBA Awards voter, so he brings something to the table that no other sports gambling writer can bring: Inside knowledge of how voters think, and how voters vote.

And by the time you get to the end of this article, you may just want to take a flyer on a +2500 candidate for Defensive Player of the Year that cannot be cashed until next June, but could be well worth the wait.

There is some important background on the voting process and voting proclivities in the article below, but first let’s get to the meat of the matter.

The Case for Dyson Daniels

Last season, Dyson Daniels of the Atlanta Hawks led the NBA with 229 steals, the highest total in 19 years since Cary Payton of the Seattle SuperSonics had 231 steals in 1995-96. 

And yes, Payton won the Defensive Player of the Year award that season. Also, Michael Jordan won it in 1986-87 when he had 236 steals, Gary Payton won it in 1995-96 when he had 231 steals, while nearly every other player who won that award in intervening years (DPOY was not an official award until 1982-83) was the league leader in blocked shots.

Daniels’ total of 229 steals last season was an astounding 98 more than the No. 2 player on the list, MVP Shai-Gilgeous Alexander of the eventual champion Oklahoma City Thunder. That is an extraordinary differential between the No. 1 and No. 2 steals leaders.

Evan Mobley of the Cleveland Cavaliers won the award in 2024-25 by garnering 35 of the 100 first-place votes, while Daniels was second with 25 first-place votes.

But get this: 10 of the 100 voters left Mobley entirely off their ballots, while 37 voters left Daniels off the ballot, which requires voters to name a first-, second- and third-place choice.

Why those omissions?

Well, as a former voter I can assure you that voters like to put players on their ballots in such a way as to award teams that overachieved. 

Mobley’s Cleveland Cavaliers won 64 regular-season games, the second-highest total in the league, and Mobley defended multiple positions. But he finished only sixth in blocked shots, 13th in defensive rebounding, 112th in steals and 63rd in Defensive Win Shares.

So yes, that is somewhat nuts.

But again, voters do not want to leave an overachieving team off of their ballots, and Mobley was the beneficiary of that, as was Cavs coach Kenny Atkinson, who was named Coach of the Year. 

Daniels, meanwhile, played for an Atlanta Hawks team that finished 40-42 and was ninth in the Eastern Conference, and his Defensive Win Share of 21st did not mitigate that sub-.500 record. Still, cracking the top 20 for most steals in a single season is no small feat, and Daniels had one game with 8 steals, two games with 7 steals, four games with 6 steals, seven games with 5 steals and 13 games with four steals.

Folks, nobody else does that.

And when you can find a player for whom you can say “Nobody else does that,” what you have is a wager worthy player. 

Inside the Mind of a Voter

Before we look at Daniels’ odds, a story from back in the day.

When your experienced correspondent was first starting out as an NBA writer in the mid-1990s, he was in San Antonio speaking with a veteran writer from USA Today about the MVP race. It was the 1996-97 season, Michael Jordan had won his fourth MVP award the previous season, and the Bulls were on their way to completing a 69-13 season while Jordan was averaging 29.6 points per game. Second in the scoring race was Karl Malone of the Utah Jazz, who averaged 27.6 points that season.

There were still several games left in the regular season, but the ballots had already been mailed out (this was prior to the advent of e-mail).

“I already voted, and I went with Karl Malone,” the USA Today writer said.

“Why?” I asked.

“Because I am sick and tired of always voting for Jordan.”

Writers and broadcasters can be fickle, which is why so many voters left Mobley and Daniels off their DPOY ballots entirely last season.

Sportsbooks around the globe are now listing futures markets for individual NBA awards, and Daniels is on the board at Bet365 at an enticing +2500, while Victor Wembenyama is the favorite at -170.

And while Wembenyama is a worthy favorite because he is a freak of nature who can beat you with both blocked shots and 3-pointers, he is coming off a deep vein thrombosis condition in his shoulder that sidelined him on February 20. 

A Voice of Authority: Hawks Broadcaster Backs Daniels

“I was shocked (Daniels) didn’t win it last year,” Hawks broadcaster Steve Holman, about to enter his 41st season calling Atlanta’s broadcasts. 

“Dyson is only 22, and he is only going to get better. He makes opposing offenses change. And it is not only his steals and deflections, he sets a tone that makes everyone on the team better defensively. Even Trae Young fed off Daniels and paid much more attention to defence.”

So again, it is entirely fair to say that at +2500, Daniels is exceedingly wager worthy. And summertime is the time to eyeball these kinds of wagering opportunities, because you can be damn sure that his odds will only drop as sharp bettors discover that this particular opportunity is available right now in late July.