The Steal King? NBA Bettors Flock to Dyson Daniels as DPOY Race Heats Up

Dyson Daniels had another five steals last night for the Atlanta Hawks, giving him 207 steals for the season and further enhancing his nickname: The Great Barrier Thief. 

At 22 years old, he is the youngest player in NBA history to record at least 200 steals. He has the fourth-highest steals total since 2000, and he is on pace to finish with nearly 240 steals, which would be about 100 more than the steals accumulated by MVP shoo-in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder, who ranks second in steals.

This should make him a strong candidate for Defensive Player of the Year, one would think.

But Daniels went into Tuesday night’s 121-114 loss to the Houston Rockets with odds of +1600 at BetMGM, one of the leading American sportsbooks, after being as low as +600 one week ago.

Draymond Green of the Golden State Warriors has become the favorite, trailed closely by Evan Mobley of the Cleveland Cavaliers. Both Green and Mobley are frontcourt players who can defend any position, and both are playing for teams with above-.500 records. Daniels and the Hawks are 35-37 and are sitting in seventh place in the Eastern Conference, and that has to be factoring into the oddsmakers’ decisions when setting the lines.

Bettors flock to Hawks guard as odds shift

But sharp bettors are seeing a value proposition in the Defensive Player of the Year race, which is the only competitive race remaining for NBA postseason awards.

Gilgeous-Alexander is -2500 at BetMGM to win MVP; Stephon Castle of the San Antonio Spurs is -650 to win Rookie of the Year; Payton Pritchard of Boston is -750 to win the Sixth Man Award; Cade Cunningham of Detroit is -225 for Most Improved Player, and Kenny Atkinson of Cleveland is -1600 to win Coach of the Year. 

But Daniels’ recent proficiency may be providing an opportunity to punters who know a viable long shot when they see one. Just look at what is happening at BetFanatics.

"Dyson Daniels has been a very recent popular selection with 51% of the bets on him coming in this month and it makes sense that bettors are flocking to him with how many steals he has racked up this season," said BetFanatics spokesman Kevin Hennessey, whose company paid out all single DPOY wagers on Victor Wembanyama of the Spurs, who was running away with the award before he suffered a season-ending that in making him ineligible to appear in 65 games, the league minimum for qualifying for a postseason award. 

“It should be noted that 51 percent of the bets on Daniels this season have come in the last month,” Hennessey told betting site SportsBoom.com. 

At FanDuel Sportbook, where Daniels was listed at +1500 on Wednesday morning, the data is showing a flood of money coming in on the Hawks guard. 

“I do not have sharp-specific data to share, but generally, Dyson Daniels has garnered the most bets on FanDuel to win Defensive Player of the Year. He has the second most handle, behind Evan Mobley. Draymond Green has the fifth most bets and third most handle for the award,” spokeswoman Rachel Spraker said.

Caesars Sportsbook was not listing DPOY on its Futures Bets Wednesday morning, Bet365 and DraftKings had Daniels at +1400, and BetRivers had the longest odds: +2000. 

Offshore, BetDSI was not listing any awards choices aside from MVP, and sportsbetting.ag took down their DPOY odds after being questioned for this article and responding through spokesman Jimmy Shapiro that they were seeing “Little to no sharp action” on Daniels. 

The writer who keeps the closest eye on the awards races, Zach Harper of The Athletic, dropped Daniels from No. 2 to No. 3 in his most recent column.

Steals leader emerges as a sleeper DPOY pick

But consider this:

When Daniels had five steals against Rockets on Tuesday night, it marked the 13th time had has recorded at least five steals (his season high is 8). Also, he had had four steals in an additional 13 games. Those are prodigious numbers, which is a factor that voters often point to when making their award choices. 

Per NBA.com, Alvin Robertson holds the record with 301 steals in the 1985-86 season, while Don Buse holds the ABA record of 346 set in 1975-76. Only two players have recorded more than 200 steals in a season this century — Allen Iverson (225 in 2002-03) and Chris Paul (217 in 2007-08, 216 in 2008-09). 

If Daniels maintains his pace and reaches 233, he’ll surpass both, making John Stockton’s 244-steal season (1991-92) the most recent with a higher total—a mark set 33 years ago. No player has averaged as many steals per game as Daniels since Robertson in 1990-91 (3.04). 

Just a little something to think wagering-wise about as we head into the final 10 games of the season with only one awards race still up in the air, according to the former NBA Awards voter who authored this article.