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New Zealand vs France Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction

Venue: Wellington Regional Stadium Kickoff Time: 09:05 (CAT Time) The All Blacks are likely to once again ring the changes for their clash with the French, but if the first game is anything to go by, this should be another showstopping encounter in Wellington. These two proud rugby playing nations have shown incredible depth in their squad, and even if the so-called stars haven’t all come out to play, the talent on display is incredible and the rugby betting opportunities available are more than enticing.

Ryan Liberty
Ryan Liberty

Last updated: 2025-07-04

Chad Nagel

5 minutes read

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Players of New Zealand perform the Haka prior to the Summer International match

Players of New Zealand/Getty Images

Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability:

The home heavyweights are once again favoured to claim the win according to the early online betting, but this encounter is likely to be a lot closer than these early odds suggest.

  1. New Zealand: 1/2 (1.50) – 67%

  2. France: 2/1 (3.00) – 33.3%

  3. Forecast odds - betting available on 1Win closer to match 

Head-To-Head Record

  1. 16/11/2024: France 30-29 New Zealand

  2. 08/09/2023: France 27-13 New Zealand

  3. 20/11/2021: France 40–25 New Zealand 

New Zealand Current Form – WWWLW

The All Blacks will always look formidable, even more so when they play on home soil. Their level of performances is always consistent, and their approach will remain relentless. Coach Scott Robertson has trusted the depth in his squad, but one wonders whether or not he will field an All Black side a little more recognizable. 
Wellington is another difficult place to go and face this New Zealand side, likely still high on the emotions of playing rugby in front of their home crowd against – it must be said – an emerging rival.

Key Players to Watch

  • Damian McKenzie 
    A fast, composed and incredibly disciplined number 10. He controls the tempo of their game so well and shows a maturity in his kicking game as well as his decision making. He is the ultimate Mr. Reliable and is likely to once again have a big say in this encounter.
  • Beauden Barrett
    Yes, we always talk about his character, but his creativity and experience are something this New Zealand side will surely welcome. His ability to shift around the field and play various positions allows the coach to keep him included, but he is certainly the sort of player you want on the field of play.
  • Ardie Savea 
    A leader who cannot be left out no matter how many times you talk about this New Zealand side. his ball carrying ability and physicality is well documented, but his willingness to dominate collisions for 80 minutes of international rugby make him a key player for his country.

France Current Form – WLWWL

France have been asked repeatedly whether their strategy of bringing a heavily rotated squad to New Zealand for these test matches is the right call, but for a side with such incredible depth and energy, they will be proud of their performances last time out. 
Admittedly, the scoreline doesn’t tell the entire story, but given their players workload in their domestic leagues, Galthie has defended their decision ahead of an otherwise tough international season.

Key Players to Watch

  • Gael Fickou
    One of the more experienced players on this tour, Fickou has risen to the challenge and happily played a linking role between the midfield and the wide areas. He will no doubt once again be charged with organizational duty here, but they will know they face another tough ask in Wellington.
  • Charles Ollivon
    A leader amongst this French side, his grit and ability on the ground will be massive for French hopes here. He will no doubt want to slow down New Zealand ball as far as possible, not allowing the hosts to dominate the tempo of the game.
  • Louis Bielle-Biarrey
    A bright young star in French rugby, Bielle-Biarrey has quickly become a name on the lips of many French fans. A quick and lethal finisher, the 21-year-old is often at the forefront of France’s attacking plays.

Suggested Bets

  1. New Zealand: New Zealand win this. Their home form, coupled with their recent dominant displays, make them a firm pick for the clash in Wellington. 

  2. Total Points (Over 45.5): France are likely to have a slightly weakened side on paper and so backing a high points turnaround could be a shrewd bet ahead of the weekend.

Value Bets

  1. First Try (NZ): Back the hosts to get off to a flying start and cross the whitewash early on. The pace at which they are able to attack will likely catch their guests off guard once more

  2. Damian McKenzie (Anytime Tryscorer): He will be involved in a lot of their attacking shape, and while he will no doubt contribute points with his boot – he has enough ability to claim five pointers as well.

Prediction: New Zealand to Win

While they will once again have the strongest side on paper, this New Zealand outfit will likely do justice to this with their performance. They are a side capable of hurting you from anywhere on the field and we expect to see much of the same come Saturday morning.
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Ryan Liberty
Ryan LibertyBetting Writer

Ryan Liberty is an experienced sports writer whose articles have featured in some of the biggest sports publications in South Africa. With a strong understanding of all major sports and an in-depth understanding of betting, Ryan consistently delivers insightful content. He's also known for his ability to break down complex topics into engaging, reader-friendly pieces.