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New Zealand vs France Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction

Date: July 19, 2025 Kick off time: 19:05 NZST Venue: Waikato Stadium, Hamilton After two high-stakes clashes in Dunedin and Wellington earlier this month, New Zealand and France will round off their three-match series at Hamilton’s Waikato Stadium on July 19. Rugby betting tips are live as two of the top rugby nations, ranked second and fourth, respectively, vie for a dominant finish.

Ryan Liberty
Ryan Liberty

Last updated: 2025-07-15

Chad Nagel

5 minutes read

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Players of New Zealand perform the Haka prior to the Summer International match

Players of New Zealand/Getty Images

The World Rugby Rankings have seen some changes during the mid-year internationals, but it’s safe to say that France will not unseat Ireland from #3 after back-to-back losses against New Zealand.To say that Les Bleus is under pressure to salvage a win in the third and final test against the All Blacks would be an understatement.The French have held onto fourth position on the rankings but could soon have England breathing down their necks, after the Red Roses claimed fifth place with their victory over Argentina.

Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability: New Zealand Overwhelming Favourites

Ahead of New Zealand's final home clash with France, rugby betting sportsbooks and online betting sites are keeping an eye on a game that could shape the international hierarchy going forward.

  1. Home: 1/50 (1.02) – 98.0%

  2. Draw: 31/1 (32.0) – 3.1%

  3. Away: 44/5 (9.80) – 10.2%
    *Odds courtesy of Sportsbet.io, subject to change

Head-To-Head Record

Last five international meetings

  1. 2025/07/12: New Zealand 43 - 17 France

  2. 2025/07/05: New Zealand 31 - 27 France

  3. 2024/11/16: New Zealand 29 - 30 France

  4. 2023/09/08: New Zealand 13 - 27 France

  5. 2021/11/20: New Zealand 25 - 40 France

New Zealand Current Form – WWWLW

The All Blacks have a great record in their last five matches, befitting their status as the second-ranked team in the world. The only low point is a loss against the very team they have somewhat humbled this time around.

New Zealand’s end-year internationals in November last year began with a strong win against Ireland (23-13) before a one-point loss to France (29-30), capped off with a comprehensive 29-11 victory over Italy.

While many expected far more competitive results in the 2025 mid-year internationals, the All Blacks first defeated France 31-27 and then recorded a significant 43-17 win a week later. The French will need to double down to avoid a series whitewash against a New Zealand team growing in confidence.

Rieko Ioane of New Zealand celebrates after scoring a try

Rieko Ioane/Getty Images

Key Players to Watch

  • Ardie Savea: Leading as captain, the flanker put in a tremendous offensive and defensive shift in the second test against France, scoring a try from the maul and also setting up his teammates to also cross the line with some enterprising plays.
  • Cameron Roigard: The scrum-half was a constant threat to Les Bleus on the fringes with his sniping moves, but also employed tactical kicking to keep the All Blacks looming. A clever try from the blindside underscored his efforts on the international stage.
  • Codie Taylor: Celebrated for his high work rate, the hooker was immense against the French, ensuring a perfect record in the lineouts and also contributing strongly on defence. To cap off his performance, Taylor scored from the rolling maul.

Team News

Coach Scott Robertson only had one change from the first to the second tests against France, with lock Scott Barrett suffering a calf tear. Winger Caleb Clarke also suffered an ankle injury training, with Emoni Narawa called up in his place.

France Current Form – WLWWL

Heading into the mid-year internationals, France would have been brimming with confidence, being ranked in the top four rugby nations in the world and coming off a successful Six Nations campaign where they prevented an Irish triple.

Their standing in the eyes of World Rugby shone in a 73-24 win over Italy, a 42-27 win over reigning Six Nations champions Ireland, and a 36-16 win over Scotland that saw them edge England out of the 2025 title.

However, things took a dramatic turn in the first test against New Zealand on July 5, where they were narrowly beaten 27-31. Coach Fabien Galthie made a raft of changes for the second test, which resulted in a humbling 17-43 loss to the All Blacks.

Nolann Le Garrec of France in action

 Nolann Le Garrec/Getty Images

Key Players to Watch

  • Nolann Le Garrec: With Antoine Dupont on the sidelines with an injury, Le Garecc was credited for speeding up the game against the All Blacks, creating scoring chances, and was also flawless from the kicking tee.
  • Cameron Woki: The French forward, who slots in at lock or flanker, earned praise for his tidy work on the lineouts in the second test loss against New Zealand. He also proved himself with speed and strong ball-carrying, bolstering his presence in the squad.
  • Antoine Hastoy: The fly-half was one of the key components of Les Bleus’ improved performance in the second half, given credit for France’s try and also for bringing much-needed structure to what had been an underwhelming offensive and defensive outing.

Team News

With coach Fabien Galthie making 10 changes between the first and second test against New Zealand, his plan to rely on young stars to step up failed dismally. He will likely aim to strike a more logical balance in the third and final test.

Predicted Line-Ups

New Zealand

Forwards:
Props (1 & 3): Ethan de Groot, Fletcher Newell (These props have experience at the top level)
Hooker (2): Codie Taylor (The hooker has proven himself a top operator in his position)
Locks (4 & 5): Patrick Tuipulotu, Fabian Holland (Experience and youth define this pairing)
Flankers (6 & 7): Tupou Vaa’i, Ardie Savea (A flank pairing with tons of international merit)
Number 8 (8): Christian Lio-Willie (The loose forward has a chance to establish himself)

Backs:
Scrum-Half (9): Cameron Roigard (A youthful and dynamic with good kicking awareness)
Fly-Half (10): Beauden Barrett (Vastly experienced as a defender and playmaker)
Centres (12 & 13): Jordie Barrett, Billy Proctor (A centre pairing of experience and raw talent)
Wings (11 & 14): Rieko Ioane, Sevu Reece (These wingers have tons of big-match exposure to draw upon)
Fullback (15): Will Jordan (Another established member of the backline)

France

Forwards:
Props (1 & 3): Pierre Bougarit, Baptiste Erdocio (A likely blend of experience and new energy)
Hooker (2): Gaetan Barlot (The hooker needs to bounce back in the third match)
Locks (4 & 5): Hugo Auradou, Cameron Woki (France needs to refine the second row)
Flankers (6 & 7): Pierre Bochaton, Alexandre Fischer, (Another pairing that must be anchored)
Number 8 (8): Estaban Abadie (A physical player that must find a way to be unleashed)

Backs:
Scrum-Half (9): Nolann Le Garrec (The half-back is one of France’s key players)
Fly-Half (10): Antoine Hastoy (A relative newcomer who has dazzled so far)
Centres (12 & 13): Pierre-Louis Barassi, Emilien Gailleton (The centre pairing boasts veterancy and budding talent)
Wings (11 & 14): Gael Fickou, Gabin Villiere (Two experienced French backline players)
Fullback (15): Theo Attissogbe (The full-back has impressed so far)

Suggested Bets

New Zealand vs France betting odds are live, including suggested bets for fans of intense international rugby clashes:

  1. First Team to Score - New Zealand: The All Blacks have been back to their dominant best in the series against the French, throttling possession and restricting any meaningful attacks, and are likely to score first in the third test (7/4 with Bettilt) (2/1 with BetWinner)

  2. Will First Try be Converted - Yes: While the French have struggled to make inroads into the All Blacks half in the mid-year series so far, both teams showed consistency with their kicking, with conversions likely to be successful (5/2 with BetWinner)

Value Bets

Reliable bookmakers for betting have also released value-for-money bets for matches like the All Blacks versus Les Bleus:

  1. Half-time/full-time - New Zealand/New Zealand: The #2 ranked team in the world has been difficult for the French to contain, and with coach Fabien Galthie still tweaking his line-up, New Zealand should make it three from three (17/100 with BetWinner) (3/20 with Bettilt)

  2. Total Under 59.5: The first two France vs New Zealand internationals ended at or close to the 60-point mark. The French could muster a better outing but the result is likely to be similar (69/100 with BetWinner) (17/25 with Bettilt)

New Zealand vs France Prediction: New Zealand to Win

The All Blacks have been in dominant form in recent internationals, proving that being second in the world is no mistake. The French are currently fourth on the rankings but have been simply outclassed in the first two tests.

Owing to the outcome of their meetings earlier this month, SportsBoom’s France prediction is another defeat by the hosts, with the All Blacks further cementing themselves favourably to challenge South Africa for the top spot.

Betting sites with welcome bonus are also offering extended value for fans of placing wagers on international rugby clashes.

Ryan Liberty
Ryan LibertyBetting Writer

Ryan Liberty is an experienced sports writer whose articles have featured in some of the biggest sports publications in South Africa. With a strong understanding of all major sports and an in-depth understanding of betting, Ryan consistently delivers insightful content. He's also known for his ability to break down complex topics into engaging, reader-friendly pieces.