Football
Brazil vs Colombia Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction
Date: Friday, March 21, 2025 Kickoff Time: 00:45 GMT Venue: Arena BRB Mane Garrincha, Brasilia SportsBoom previews the FIFA World Cup qualifier between Brazil and Colombia at the Maracanã Stadium on Friday, March 21, 2025. This matchup could be pivotal in the qualifying campaign for either nation from the CONMEBOL region. If you're looking to bet on football games, check out the best football betting sites for promotions and enhanced odds.
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Vinicius Júnior of Brazil//Getty Images
Brazil's Tactical Evolution vs Colombia's Resilience
Brazil enters this fixture finger on the trigger to solidify their position in the World Cup qualifiers. Historically dominant in this matchup, the Seleção will want to leverage playing in the famous 73,000-seater in Brasilia. But to the dismay of many Brazilian national football team fans, tactical shifts under coach Dorival Júnior, who has been in charge for just over a year, highlight a more structured and possession-based approach, rather than the Brazil we have come to love and adorn.
Colombia has shown a similar transformation, one that showcases their ability to adapt to any opposition before them under coach Néstor Lorenzo. Los Cafeteros’ ability to disrupt opponents' build-up play and capitalize on transitions could pose a massive challenge for Brazil.
Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability
Brazil Firm Favourites
Brazil: 1.80 (4/5) – 55.56%
Draw: 3.50 (5/2) – 28.57%
Colombia: 4.75 (15/4) – 21.05%
*Odds courtesy of Betway, subject to change.
Head-to-Head Record
Last Five Meetings (All Competitions):
03/07/24: Brazil 1-1 Colombia
17/11/23: Colombia 2-1 Brazil
12/11/21: Brazil 1-0 Colombia
11/10/21: Colombia 0-0 Brazil
24/06/21: Brazil 2-1 Colombia
Brazil: Current Form – LWWDD
Brazil has been largely inconsistent of late and is in danger of failing to qualify under Dorival Júnior. The team’s approach to football under the new coach has looked a lot more like the generic football we see in very successful clubs today, nothing like the Brazilian play most football fans love to witness. And even with the change of approach, defensive lapses are more evident because it’s harder for the whole team to be on the same page – much is the struggle of national football.
In their last outing against Colombia, Brazil and Colombia battled to a 1-1 draw, with a sensational direct free-kick from Raphinha securing the Selecao a point. The Barcelona winger opened the scoring just 12 minutes into the game, but Brazil stagnated for the 78 minutes that followed.
In more recent fixtures, finishing off the chances created by good play has left them dropping points in World Cup qualifiers. They had to settle for a 1-1 draw with Uruguay last time out, leaving them with just three wins in their last nine qualifying matches.
One of Brazil’s biggest worries is the potential absence of Neymar, who continues to recover from an ankle injury. Without him, the team will rely heavily on Vinícius Júnior, who has failed to deliver, and Rodrygo, who does have the quality, but his age has fallen prey to composure in decisive moments.
Key Players to Watch
- Vinicius Jr.: Expected to carry the attacking burden, Vinícius needs to step up in Neymar’s absence. The Real Madrid forward’s pace and dribbling ability make him a key figure in Brazil’s frontline.
- Rodrygo: The youngster is technically gifted, and his finishing and movement in the box are going to be key in a tightly knit Colombian backline.
- Marquinhos: The veteran defender will play a crucial role in organizing Brazil’s backline. Still on a high after securing a massive Champions League win over Liverpool, he will need to be on point alongside Arsenal’s Gabriel Magalhaes when Colombia looks to counterattack.
Brazil Team News
Brazil has a few injury concerns ahead of the two upcoming qualifiers. The biggest concern is Neymar potentially missing out on both fixtures despite being selected for the side. Gabriel Jesus being out has left the centre-forward position short, and Casemiro not available to hold the midfield may leave vulnerabilities on the counter.
Colombia: Current Form – LLWLW
Colombia has quietly become one of the most formidable underdogs in the CONMEBOL region under Nestor Lorenzo. Their discipline to the defensive approach from Nestor earned them an unbeaten run of 28 fixtures, which secured wins against top sides like Germany, Uruguay, Spain, and their current opponents, Brazil. It is currently the nation's longest unbeaten streak in its history. It was broken when they lost in the CONMEBOL final to Lionel Messi and co via penalties.
Their last outing against Brazil saw them hold their own in a 1-1 draw, reaffirming their resilience against top opposition after failing to show the same tenacity that they did in the unbeaten run. More recently, they have won just two fixtures since that final against Argentina, one of which was a 2-1 victory over La Albiceleste, and a convincing 4-0 thumping of Chile. But the recent 3-2 loss to Uruguay and 0-1 loss to Ecuador has left a lot to be desired.
The pace of Luis Diaz and the playmaking ability of James Rodriguez are crucial in the way Colombia force their efforts, and if it’s neutralized then life becomes difficult.
Key Players to Watch
- Luis Díaz: The Liverpool winger is Colombia’s biggest attacking threat, using his pace and skill to stretch defences and create scoring opportunities.
- James Rodríguez: Despite his age, James remains Colombia’s creative engine, dictating play with his vision and passing range.
- Davinson Sánchez: The experienced centre-back will have the crucial task of containing Brazil’s quick attackers and ensuring defensive discipline.
Colombia Team News
Colombia has no major injury concerns heading into the fixture. The midfield remains well-stocked with Jefferson Lerma and Jhon Arias, alongside Goalkeeper David Ospina providing experience in goal. The squad’s depth will be crucial.
Predicted Line-Up
Brazil: 4-3-3
Ederson; Danilo, Marquinhos, Gabriel Magalhães, Guilherme Arana; Bruno Guimarães, Douglas Luiz, Lucas Paquetá; Raphinha, Rodrygo, Vinícius Júnior.Colombia: 4-2-3-1
David Ospina; Daniel Muñoz, Davinson Sánchez, Carlos Cuesta, Johan Mojica; Richard Ríos, Jefferson Lerma, Jhon Arias; James Rodríguez, Jhon Córdoba, Luis Díaz.
Suggested Bets
Betting on World Cup qualifiers is always a challenge, but understanding team form and player impact can make all the difference. For more insight into betting strategies, check out our expert guide.
Both Teams to Score (Yes): Considering the attacking nature and quality on both sides, we anticipate a high-scoring affair with goals from each team. (7/10 with 1Win)
Over 2.5 Goals: Given the attacking quality of both sides, there’ll be plenty of goalscoring opportunities and we’re confident in at least over 2.5 goals. (15/20 with Betway)
Vinícius Júnior Anytime Goalscorer: With Neymar absent, Vinícius will be the key attacking threat and is expected to play a major role in Brazil's attacking setup. We fancy him to get on the scoresheet. (13/10 with BetWinner)
Value Bets
Colombia to Score First: With their well-structured counterattacks, Colombia could strike early before Brazil settles into the game. (3/1 with Betway)
Luis Díaz Anytime Goalscorer: The Liverpool winger's pace and ability to exploit defensive gaps make him a real threat. (33/10 with Stake)
Correct Score (2-2 Draw): Given the attacking potential on both sides, this scoreline presents an enticing high-value bet. (14/1 with Betway)
Prediction: Brazil to Win & Both Teams to Score (Yes)
Brazil has been inconsistent of late, but their home advantage and attacking talent should give them the edge in this clash. Colombia is more than capable of troubling Brazil’s defence with their attacking threats. Most importantly to this punt, both teams have shown vulnerabilities at the back, hence the Both Teams To Score play. That said, Brazil's superior quality in personnel and desire to make sure of their qualification on home soil before facing Argentina could prove crucial. With plenty of goal-scoring opportunities expected, bettors will find strong markets available with leading online betting sites.
Joshua Gaillard is a freelance editor and dedicated Arsenal fan, known for creating fact-based, insightful content. His work, featured on top South African websites, blends analysis with engaging storytelling for clear, impactful articles.