NBA
Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks: Odds, Tips and Prediction
The Denver Nuggets take on the Dallas Mavericks for a second time in two days for this Western Conference encounter. Date: Tuesday 14th January 2025 Start time: 8:30 pm local time (02:30 am BST) Venue: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas Last meeting: November 22, 2024, Dallas Mavericks 123-120 Denver Nuggets
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Nikola Jokic//Getty Images
The Denver Nuggets take on the Dallas Mavericks for a second time in two days for this Western Conference encounter. Both teams are currently placed within the top five seeds in the West for this blockbuster fixture. The Nuggets have a one-game advantage in both teams’ overall record, but this matchup is expected to be a key turning point for either team’s season concerning who can finish as the highest seed. Will Dallas be able to produce two wins on the home court without their two-star players?
Dive into SportsBoom’s comprehensive analysis of both teams. We give you our top-value betting recommendations and a detailed look at the key players on both rosters and their respective head-to-head records.
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Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability
Denver Nuggets are slight favourites to win.
Denver Nuggets: 4/6 (1.67) – 60%
Dallas Mavericks: 6/4 (2.50) – 40%
Forecast Odds – Betting available at Stake closer to event
Head-to-Head Record
Despite playing over multiple decades, the Dallas Mavericks versus the Denver Nuggets is a closely contested fixture. Both teams have played each other 191 times in the regular season, with the Mavericks winning the most games with 98 victories, whereas the Nuggets have the marginally inferior 93.
When the Dallas Mavericks and the Denver Nuggets have recently played, on each occasion it delivers blockbuster basketball. In the last three matchups, both teams were separated by only a one-possession game and went down to the wire. Both organizations relish the opportunity to play each other due to both rosters have European stars as the spearheads. The home side has Luca Doncic, whereas Denver has Nikola Jokic, two of the league’s brightest stars.
Last Five Matches
| Season | Date | Result |
| 2024/25 Season | November 22, 2024 | Dallas Mavericks 123-120 Denver Nuggets |
| 2024/25 Season | November 10, 2024 | Denver Nuggets 122-120 Dallas Mavericks |
| 2023/24 Season | March 17, 2024 | Dallas Mavericks 107-105 Denver Nuggets |
| 2023/24 Season | December 18, 2023 | Denver Nuggets 130-104 Dallas Mavericks |
| 2023/24 Season | November 3, 2023 | Denver Nuggets 125-114 Dallas Mavericks |
How is the season so far for both teams?
Dallas Mavericks
- Record: 21-16
- Home Form: 11-6
- Road Form: 10-10
Despite the Dallas Mavericks sitting as the only team inside the top eight seeds with a negative record in their last ten games, the organization lies fifth in the Western Conference. In contrast, the Mavericks are the only team in the division with a .500 record on the road, but a record that still places them fourth when factoring in away record alone.
Their star player Luca Doncic is their stat leader in points-per-game, rebounds, assists and steals and was looking in fine form. The Mavericks are without the Slovenian giant for a few more weeks after suffering a left calf strain during their Christmas Day clash. He has only played 22 games this season, therefore his stats are slightly lower than the previous seasons.
In his absence, Kyrie Irving has been at the forefront of the roster but is now out himself for the next week or two. Their newest recruit Klay Thompson will be holding the mantle for these next few weeks. Thompson arrived in the Lone Star State after opting to leave San Francisco’s Golden State Warriors. He is posting 14.2 points on average, numbers as low since his first year in the sport.
Klay Thompson//Getty Images
Denver Nuggets
- Record: 20-15
- Home Form: 10-7
- Road Form: 10-8
The Denver Nuggets are one of three teams inside the Western Conference to have positive win records both on home turf and on the road. The Nuggets sit fourth and have won an identical number of games both home and away, with one more defeat away. The Nuggets are 6-4 in their last ten games which has put them fourth, but the division is extremely compact through to the play-in divisional slots.
By far the most valuable player for the franchise is Nikola Jokic, who is second and third overall in the entire league in points per game, rebounds and assists. Jokic has raised the bar on his own game where he normally produces impressive performances. Throughout 2023/24, he posted 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds and nine assists. Yet, this year, he is even better, posting 31.5 points, 13 rebounds and 9.7 assists, averaging almost a triple-double across the whole season thus far.
The Nuggets’ primary choice at point guard Jamal Murray is the roster’s next leading scorer, with the 27-year-old Canadian producing 19.4 points per game, his lowest since the 2019-20 season. Murray’s efficiency on three-point shots has regressed from 42.5% to 36.1%, too, which is a cause of concern for the organization. Despite this, Murray continues to match his seasonal averages in rebounds and assists.
Value Bets
Nikola Jokic: Over 30 Points, Over 10 Rebounds and Over 10 Assists
SportsBoom predicts Nikola Jokic to continue averaging his seasonal stats by posting another triple-double. This is a key matchup for the Nuggets and Jokic will continue to rise to the occasion. He has posted back-to-back triple-doubles against the Mavericks, therefore a possible third in a row is on the cards.
Klay Thompson: Over 20 Points
Considering star players Luca Doncic and Kyrie Irving will be absentees, Klay Thompson will hope to rise to the occasion for this fixture. Across all 37 games against the Nuggets, Thompson has averaged 18.4 points per game. Despite scoring zilch in his previous encounter against the Nuggets, SportsBoom believes Thompson will rise to the occasion to try and defeat the seed above them.
Prediction: Denver Nuggets to win
In conclusion, our prediction favours the Denver Nuggets. Though this game is a very close encounter in recent and historical contexts, this head-to-head battle will see two of the Mavericks’ best weapons miss out. Therefore, it is plausible to suggest that the Nuggets will be too strong with Jokic as their key operator. This important game will make a difference in the seeding to the places behind them, meaning the division could be more close-knit than ever before.
Henry Cheal is a versatile freelance sports journalist with extensive experience in the industry. Henry has previously worked at the 2024 World Snooker Championship and earned a Multimedia Sports Journalism degree from UCFB in 2023.
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