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Japan vs Wales Preview: Odds, Tips and Predictions

Date: July 12, 2025 Venue: Noevir Stadium Kobe (Kobe City Misaki Park Stadium) Kick-off time: 14.50 JST With the 2025 international rugby window officially open, Wales will continue its tour of Japan with the second test in Kobe on July 12. SportBoom has previewed their upcoming clash as countries aim to flex their muscle on the global stage. Rugby league fans can learn more about the top rugby betting sportsbooks and also see predictions for the match.

Bruce Douglas
Bruce Douglas

Last updated: 2025-07-07

Chad Nagel

8 minutes read

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Jac Morgan and Tommy Reffell/Getty Images

Jac Morgan and Tommy Reffell/Getty Images

Wales’ tour to Japan will continue in Kobe on July 12, in the second of two tests. The Dragons would be backing their sterling record against the Brave Blossoms, despite a string of recent losses.

With the 2027 Rugby World Cup two years away, both teams could be looking to make a statement of intent, with the Japanese likely to be pushing for a rare victory against their European opposition.

However, Japan have won just one of their test matches against Wales, back in 2013, and this could place the hosts under pressure before the first whistle. As such, reliable bookmakers for betting are keeping a close eye.

Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability: Wales Heavy Favourites

Rugby betting tips are currently live, with online betting sites predicting in Wales’ favour.

  1. Home: 33/20 (2.65) – 37,7% 

  2. Draw: 26/1 (27.0) – 3.7% 

  3. Away: 49/100 (1.49) – 67.1%
    *Odds courtesy of BC.game, subject to change

Head-to-Head Record

Last five meetings (international tests)

  1. 19/11/2016: Wales 33-30 Japan 

  2. 15/6/2013: Wales 8-23 Japan

  3. 8/6/2013: Wales 22-18 Japan 

  4. 26/11/2004: Wales 98-0 Japan 

  5. 17/6/2001: Wales 53-30 Japan

Wales: Current Form - LLLLL

To say that Wales is under pressure for positive results would be a major understatement, after five straight defeats in the Six Nations earlier this year. Losses against each of their five fellow European nations left them rooted to last place on the table.

Even before the European tournament, the Welsh were in a rough position, last winning any form of international contest in 2023, when they defeated Georgia 43-19 in the 2023 Rugby World Cup. Since then, the Dragons have been a shadow of their former selves.

While Wales has an almost unblemished record against Japan, their recent loss to the Brave Blossoms would be a major factor against a team low on confidence but still brimming with heart.

Dewi Lake of Wales prepares to throw the ball during the Summer Rugby

Dewi Lake/Getty Images

Japan: Current Form - LLLWW

Japan has a tricky set of test matches looming, including what is set to be major clashes against the likes of Ireland and Australia. The July 5 clash against Wales served as an important acid test of their capabilities, coming from behind to win.

While the Brave Blossoms did enjoy a win over Uruguay in 2024, claiming a 36-20 victory, their record against powerhouses of the world like France and New Zealand serve to underscore how much work is still needed to see the Asians scale to greater heights.

Japan’s 2013 win against Wales was a source of inspiration for a team looking to come into its own - and perhaps claim their spot on the world rankings. Yes, their losses in 2024 were sizable but also demonstrated the never-say-die attitude of a country that once felled global giants South Africa.

Japan's Kanji Shimokawa holds onto the ball during the second half of a Rugby World Cup

Japan's Kanji Shimokawa /Getty Images

Wales: Key Players to Watch

  • Aaron Wainwright: The flanker has enjoyed an impactful season in the domestic and international scenes, as evidenced by his Players’ Player of the Year prize for Welsh team Dragons RFC. He also stood out as part of Wales’ back row at #6 despite his country’s dismal performance in the Six Nations.
  • Dewi Lake: The captain returned halfway through this year’s Six Nations after sitting on the sidelines with an injury, marking his return in a big way. The hooker has been another positive for Wales amid their record losing streak, and has been applauded for his leadership for his country and his club, Ospreys.
  • Blair Murray: After a strong season with Scarlets in the domestic rugby arena, he is being backed for great things in the Wales jersey. A highly adaptable player, Murray generally plays as a full-back but has impressed as a winger and even a fly-half, which makes him a valuable asset for coach Matt Sherratt.

Japan: Key Players to Watch

  • Kanji Shimokawa: The flanker will lead the Brave Blossoms in international action, having established himself as a reliable back-row player with strong leadership skills. Playing his domestic rugby for Tokyo Sungoliath, he has translated that experience to the Japanese national team, where he has earned 14 caps (as of the first Wales test).
  • Kenta Fukuda: Serving a central role as vice-captain of a young team brimming with potential, the scrum-half has been selected as part of Japan’s backline. Much has been said about the comparatively light set of backs compared to forwards, although players like Fukuda would be itching to showcase their speed.
  • Siosaia Fifita: The Tonga-born back will be keen to add to his 16 Test caps for Japan, and to generate some positive momentum after a tough season with Toyota Verblitz in the country’s Rugby League One. With a strong physical presence, Fifita is usually positioned as a centre but can also pivot as a winger.

Wales Team News

Coach Sherratt has had to contend with many absences, with Jac Morgan currently with the British and Irish Lions, while Dafydd Jenkings, Henry Thomas, Will Rowlands and Adam Beard are out with injuries. Six uncapped players are also in the mix: Liam Belcher, Chris Coleman, Keelan Giles, Reuben Morgan-Williams, Garyn Phillips and Macs Page.

Japan Team News

Coach Hattley has tried to strike a balance with his squad, with 21 of the 23 players featuring in the Japan Rugby League One. He has also called up Jingo Takenoshita and Shuhei Takeuchi representing university teams. Shuntaro Kitamura and Australian-born Sam Greene are also uncapped for the Brave Blossoms.

Predicted Line-Ups

Wales

Forwards:
Props (1 & 3): Nicky Smith, Archie Griffin (A pair looking for a starring role up front) Hooker (2): Dewi Lake (The captain brings strength and leadership to the front row)
Locks (4 & 5): Freddie Thomas, Teddy Williams (With regular locks out of action, Coach Sherratt will look to players who shone domestically this season)
Flankers (6 & 7): Aaron Wainwright, Tommy Reffell (The Welsh back row could be their strongest area thanks to two standout backs)
Number 8 (8): Taulupe Faletau (Boasting experience and leadership, he will be vital in this role)

Backs:
Scrum-Half (9): Kieran Hardy (Likely to star ahead of Reuben Morgan-Williams and others) Fly-Half (10): Sam Costelow (His performance this season has seen him back in the squad) Centres (12 & 13): Ben Thomas, Joe Roberts (Both men have been solid in domestic outings) Wings (11 & 14): Josh Adams, Tom Rogers (Adams brings experience, while Rogers brings power and pace)
Fullback (15): Blair Murray (His excellent season could translate to success with the Dragons)

Japan

Forwards:
Props (1 & 3): Kenta Kobayashi, Shuhei Takeuchi (The young front row is looking for action) Hooker (2): Hayate Era (A powerhouse hooker is a rising star)
Locks (4 & 5): Epineri Uluiviti, Waisake Raratubua (The Fiji-born locks are imposing players) Flankers (6 & 7): Vueti Tupou, Kanji Shimokawa (The tall Fijian flanker is paired with his captain) Number 8 (8): Keito Aoki (His role as a marshall for the forwards will be crucial)

Backs:
Scrum-Half (9): Kenta Fukuda (The vice captain has pace to burn among the backs)
Fly-Half (10): Sam Greene (The Australian-born star will need to prove himself at this level) Centres (12 & 13): Charlie Lawrence, Siosaia Fifita (The centres bring New Zealand and Tongan flair and might, respectively)
Wings (11 & 14): Kazuma Ueda, Taira Main (Ueda has sevens experience and has been paired with a hard-hitting back)
Fullback (15): Jingo Takenoshita (An uncapped player looking to make his big break)

Suggested Bets

SportsBoom has looked at Wales vs Japan betting odds, including suggested bets with some of the top rugby sportsbooks.

First Team to Score - Wales

While the Japanese managed to get the better of the Welsh in their game on July 5, the Dragons scored first and have been given the nod to do so again in their second test (71/100 with 888Starz) (7/10 with BC.Game)

Total Even - No

Their previous match was a fine blend of tries, conversions and penalties, which resulted in an odd score. With only one week between their first and second test, this could be the case yet again (43/50 with 888Starz)

Value Bets

Best betting sites for rugby have also provided odds with good value, for those who want to wager on the test match:

Halftime/fulltime - Wales/Japan

Wales took the advantage into the half-time break before Japan mounted a memorable comeback. This could be the case again in what both teams would consider a must-win (41/5 with BC.Game) (83/100 with 888Starz)

Total - Under 52.5

In their first test a week earlier, Japan and Wales scored a combined 43 points. Given that both teams now have a better understanding of each other, it’s possible the scoreline could be similar (123/100 with BC.Game)

Wales vs Japan Prediction: Dragons to Win

On paper, Wales grinding out back-to-back victories against Japan seems the most likely outcome. It’s worth noting that both teams are in a desperate and even precarious position, having struggled for positive results and with both coaches under pressure to prove themselves.

With sights likely already set on the 2027 World Cup, the Brave Blossoms could look to strike an early psychological blow and add another win over the Dragons. However, SportsBoom’s Japan match prediction is that Wales claim a slender victory away from home.

For those looking to wager on the action, exploring betting sites with welcome bonus could offer added value when backing your prediction.

Bruce Douglas
Bruce DouglasSports Writer

Bruce Douglas has more than 12 years of experience in local news media. He has worked at all levels of print and online publication, from crime and politics to photography, newspaper layout, proofreading, mentoring, sub-editing, and leading a newsroom. He played numerous sports at the school level and enjoys keeping up to date.