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Paraguay vs Uruguay Preview: Odds, Tips and Predictions

Date: July 26, 2025 Kick off time: 16:40 PST Venue: Estadio Heroes de Curupayty, Luque In a battle looking to determine the South American hierarchy, Paraguay and Uruguay will battle for the second continental qualification spot for the 2027 Rugby World Cup. Their first-leg clash on Luque on July 26 will determine who has the advantage and edges closer to the final to face the winner between Chile and Brazil, with best rugby betting sites providing odds. Uruguay travels to Paraguay for their semi-final first-leg clash in the 2027 Rugby World Cup qualifiers, with the concurrent first leg between Brazil and Chile already wrapped up and heading to the second stage.

Bruce Douglas
Bruce Douglas

Last updated: 2025-07-24

Chad Nagel

6 minutes read

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Uruguay's hooker German Kessler dives across the line to score a try

Uruguay's hooker German Kessler/Getty Images

With the second leg coming near the end of August, Los Teros and Los Yacares would be looking to gain the advantage before their winner-takes-all clash in Montevideo.

Paraguay won the repechage against Colombia in October last year to set up this clash with Uruguay, with the winner here advancing to meet either Brazil or Chile for the second guaranteed South American qualification spot.

Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability: Uruguay the Favourites

Paraguay vs Uruguay betting odds have been released ahead of the game, with sports betting online already active for a crucial game.

  1. Home: 3/2 (2.50) – 40.0%

  2. Away: 3/10 (1.30) – 76.9%
    *Odds courtesy of Sportsbet.io, subject to change

Head-to-Head Record

Latest international meetings

  1. 2015/04/11: Uruguay 77 - 3 Paraguay

  2. 2003/04/30: Uruguay 53 - 7 Paraguay

  3. 2002/05/03: Uruguay 81 - 6 Paraguay

  4. 2001/10/06: Uruguay 62 - 8 Paraguay

  5. 1998/10/10: Uruguay 93 - 3 Paraguay

Paraguay Current Form – LLLLL

Currently ranked as either the fourth or fifth South American team, depending on where Brazil stands in the argument, Paraguay have struggled to make an impact in their previous international engagements.

Looking back at their last five international clashes, Los Yacares were massacred 7-146 by Argentina A during their October 2021 series, before the Brazilians put them to the sword with a 19-58 defeat a few days later.

In 2022, Brazil made it two wins in a row with a slim 28-31 result. In more recent results, Paraguay fell against Hong Kong 12-80 in July 2024 and then made it five consecutive losses with a 20-45 defeat against Belgium the next week.

Juan Martin Gonzalez of Saracens dives over for their first try

Juan Martin Gonzalez/ Getty Images

Key Players to Watch

  • Gonzalo Camusio: The number 8 has been a workhorse for Paraguay in their recent matches and even scored a brace of tries in the repechage clash against Colombia.
  • Sebastian Urbita: The dynamic back has also proven himself a reliable kicker from the tee and in open play, having provided good service to his teammates and scoring himself.
  • Joaquin Mussi: The fly-half has also been impressive at the kicking tee and remains a valuable play-maker for Los Yacares.

Team News

Coach Ricardo Le Fort has established a mostly consistent XV and is likely to field a similar team to the one that overran Colombia in October last year.

Uruguay Current Form – LWWLL

As the second-best team on the continent, Uruguay have had their struggles but have also recorded some surprising results that somewhat justify their placement as 17th in the World Rugby rankings.

Their November 2024 series came with some mixed outcomes: Los Teros fell to the higher-ranked Spain 24-33, were defeated by Japan 20-36 a week later, then rounded off on a positive note with a win against Romania (23-21).

In their 2025 mid-year internationals, Uruguay repeated the result against the Romanians with a 70-8 hammering before Argentina imposed their will on July 19 and reiterated their claim as the strongest team South America has to offer (52-17).

Uruguay's lock Manuel Leindekar (R) fights for the ball

Uruguay's lock Manuel Leindekar/Getty Images

Key Players to Watch

  • Santiago Civetta: The flanker has been solid offensively and has shown a knack for capitalising on opposition errors and defensive lapses.
  • Juan Gonzalez: The back has been dangerous with the ball in-hand and could use his speed and cunning to cut through the opposition lines.
  • Felipe Etcheverry: A strong figure in the fly-half position, Etcheverry has been solid from the kicking tee and has demonstrated good vision when setting plays.

Team News

Coach Carlos Ambrosio has relied on a generally consistent unit of players and with a lot at stake, is expected to stick with a similar XV to the one that faced Argentina earlier this month.

Predicted Line-Ups

Paraguay

Forwards:
Props (1 & 3): Daniel Cabral, Estefano Aranda (A powerful pairing in the front row)
Hooker (2): Agustin Benitez (The hooker has been solid in the set pieces)
Locks (4 & 5): Ignacio Martinez, Alvaro Allo (Paraguay is experimenting with their pairings)
Flankers (6 & 7): Mateo Rodriguez, Ariel Nunez (A dynamic duo in the third row)
Number 8 (8): Gonzalo Camusio (The eighth man has been strong on offence and defence)

Backs:
Scrum-Half (9): Gonzalo Bareiro (The scrum-half has shown vision in his tactics)
Fly-Half (10): Joaquin Mussi (Paraguay could gamble on a change in the #10 jersey)
Centres (12 & 13): Rafael Bareiro, Sebastian Urbieta (The centres could be a solid blend of pace, power and kicking ability)
Wings (11 & 14): Juan Gonzalez, Facundo Paiva (The backs are looking to flex their speed)
Fullback (15): Arturo Lopez (The #15 has proven himself reliable enough)

Uruguay

Forwards:
Props (1 & 3): Mateo Sanguinetti, Diego Arbelo (The front row has remained mostly consistent)
Hooker (2): German Kessler (A reliable #2 expected to knuckle down in set pieces)
Locks (4 & 5): Felipe Aliaga, Manuel Leindekar (The captain, Leindekar, is part of a decent pairing)
Flankers (6 & 7): Manuel Ardao, Santiago Civetta (A pairing strong on defence and attack)
Number 8 (8): Manuel Diana (An established eighth man looking to flex his power)

Backs:
Scrum-Half (9): Santiago Alvarez (A reassuring presence at the breakdowns and open play)
Fly-Half (10): Felipe Etcheverry (Multiple caps indicate his value to the team)
Centres (12 & 13): Andres Vilaseca, Felipe Arcos Perez (An experienced centre pairing)
Wings (11 & 14): Ignacio Alvarez, Bautista Basso (Relatively young and hungry wingers)
Fullback (15): Juan Gonzalez (A dynamic player slotting in various positions)

Suggested Bets

As South America’s Rugby World Cup qualifiers draw to a close, best betting sites for rugby are offering suggested stakes.

  1. First Team to Score - Uruguay: The visitors have established themselves as one of the best on the continent and with such high stakes, are likely to draw first blood against Paraguay in the first leg of their semi-final engagement (3/5)

Value Bets

Reliable bookmakers for betting are also offering value on bets with matches with major implications for international aspirations.

  1. Jersey Number of First Player to Score - Odd: With Uruguay likely to put the first points on the board, scrum-half Santiago Alvarez was the most prolific scorer in their previous losing effort against Argentina and seems set to repeat this (5/1)

Prediction: Uruguay to Win

Continental clashes always carry an air of unpredictability about them and both South American nations would approach the semi-final first leg with their strongest possible squads, with a place at the 2027 World Cup in the balance.

However, considering Uruguay’s status as the second-best team in the continent, SportsBoom’s Paraguay match prediction is that Los Teros take the advantage into the second leg and go on to face Brazil or Chile in the qualifier final.

With the two nations putting everything on the line for this match, betting sites with welcome bonus have offered extra value with rugby betting sportsbooks.

Bruce Douglas
Bruce DouglasSports Writer

Bruce Douglas has more than 12 years of experience in local news media. He has worked at all levels of print and online publication, from crime and politics to photography, newspaper layout, proofreading, mentoring, sub-editing, and leading a newsroom. He played numerous sports at the school level and enjoys keeping up to date.