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South Africa vs Italy Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction

Venue: Mbombela Stadium Kickoff Time: 17:00 (CAT Time) The Springboks welcome Italy to the Mbombela Stadium on Saturday, 5 July. While the hosts will be confident of registering impressive home performances, they will know they face an Italian side brimming with confidence. For rugby fans wanting to explore betting options, it is always a good idea to consider the best rugby betting sites for competitive offers and dynamic insights.

Ryan Liberty
Ryan Liberty

Last updated: 2025-06-30

Chad Nagel

5 minutes read

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Pieter-Steph Du Toit of South Africa hands off Jayden Hayward of Italy

Pieter-Steph Du Toit of South Africa hands off Jayden Hayward of Italy//Getty Images

Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability

  1. South Africa: 1/12 (1.08) – 88%

Head-To-Head Record

Last three meetings 

  1. 19/11/2022: South Africa 63-21 Italy 

  2. 04/10/2019: South Africa 49-3 Italy

  3. 25/11/2017: Italy 6–35 South Africa 

South Africa Current Form – LWWWW

The Springboks will be hoping they are able to pick up in 2025 where they left off at the end of 2024. They are currently enjoying a golden generation of rugby talent and come into this Test as not only the number one ranked side in the world, but also the reigning Rugby World Cup champions. 

They are a side who enjoy a defensive system which is watertight and a forward pack which allows them to play from set pieces with devastating consequences. They now return to Mbombela stadium, a place which has served as a sort of fortress for the side in recent years. 

Assumedly, they will use this environment to give fringe players a run – but don’t think for a second that waters down their ability. 

Key Players to Watch

Kurt-Lee Arendse: An exciting player with blistering pace and accuracy. Arendse has quickly become a South African try-scoring threat and if he is afforded time and space here, expect him to cause the Italians all sorts of problems. 

Jasper Wiese: The versatile forward has enjoyed his time in Europe, but his physicality at the back of the scrum and in open play will no doubt be a welcomed addition to this Springbok pack. Keep an eye on him here for sure.

Jordan Hendrikse: If he returns to the playing squad for the Italy clash, one wonders how long it will be until he enjoys a bit of a breakthrough moment. He is a creative player who has an incredible kicking range and patient game management style. He is certainly one to keep tabs on as well.

Italy Current Form – LWLLL

Italy have seemingly come in from their days of simply making up a number in the Six Nations competition. Under the leadership of Gonzalo Quesada, their attack has quickly become precise and their often wayward defence has begun to hold water. 

Inconsistency seems to reign as a major concern for the side, and whether or not their pack is able to stand up to the demands of the very best in the game remains a doubt. Are they able to cause a major upset in Nelspruit? You wouldn’t count them out, but it will certainly be tough. 

Key Players to Watch

  • Ange Capuozzo: Playing at fullback, Capuozzo remains one of Italy’s most electric talents. He isn’t the sort of player you want to give too much space to. His counter-attacking nature can be harmful to any opponent, and for Italian hopes, he will be one to watch.
  • Sebastian Negri: He is a hard and robust flanker, one who is likely to welcome the physicality of a game against South Africa. His workrate – especially at the breakdown – will keep Italy competitive, but he will need to keep this up for the entire 80 minutes.
  • Tommaso Menoncello: The youngster has had to contend with injury and a possible lack of confidence in recent weeks, but he remains a shining light for Italian rugby’s future. He is both defensive as he is offensive and the balance he offers through the middle of the pitch is simply undeniable.

Suggested Bets

  1. South Africa (-27.5): Italy doesn’t have a defensive record to be proud of; they now come up against a Bok side playing incredible rugby. Back the home side to run away with, even with a seemingly watered-down team. 23/10 (3.3) with Betway. 

  2. Total Points (Over 48.5): Interestingly, four of the last six encounters between these two nations have surpassed this total. Points are certainly expected, and we expect this fixture to be no different. 19/20 (1.95) with Hollywoodbets.

Value Bets

  1. Italy to Score First: The Springboks will dominate the game through their forwards. If the visitors are able to start quickly and attack before the game settles down, they could catch the Springboks napping. 5/1 (6.0) with Supabets.

  2. Italy (+32.5): Italy will know they are in for a tough weekend in South Africa, but given that the hosts are likely to start a peripheral team – the visitors may be able to stay within a margin of honour! 1/1 (2.0) with 10Bet.

Prediction: Springboks to Win

The Springboks are a powerful team, with powerful players all over the pitch. You take that and add to the fact that they are playing their European friends at altitude. Quesada will be confident of his side’s ability to bring their own level of creativity and attacking prowess, but whether or not they are able to match the physicality of their hosts remains to be seen.  

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Ryan Liberty
Ryan LibertyBetting Writer

Ryan Liberty is an experienced sports writer whose articles have featured in some of the biggest sports publications in South Africa. With a strong understanding of all major sports and an in-depth understanding of betting, Ryan consistently delivers insightful content. He's also known for his ability to break down complex topics into engaging, reader-friendly pieces.