Football
Estonia vs Italy Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction
Date: Saturday, 11 October 2025 Kickoff Time: 6:45 PM BST Venue: Lilleküla Stadium, Tallinn Italy starts a new chapter under Gennaro Gattuso, who steps into the dugout with all the subtlety of a caffeine shot. The former midfield enforcer takes charge of his first competitive match as Azzurri coach, knowing that failure to reach a third straight World Cup would be nothing short of catastrophic for a nation still haunted by its 2018 and 2022 absences. Their opponents, Estonia, have nothing to lose and plenty of lessons still fresh from last month’s 5-0 hammering in Bergamo. This mismatch presents clear opportunities for football betting enthusiasts looking for value in World Cup qualifiers.
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Alessandro Bastoni , Gennaro Gattuso, Riccardo Calafiori and Moise Kean//Getty Images
Pre-Game Outlook: Gattuso’s New Era Begins Under Pressure
Gattuso’s appointment brought curiosity, scepticism, and a flicker of optimism. Italy looked ruthless in that 5-0 demolition, controlling the ball for the vast majority of the game and peppering Estonia’s box with relentless attacks. Donnarumma could have brought a deckchair; Italy completed almost three times as many passes as the hosts and recorded a 90 percent passing accuracy.
Despite the comfort of that win, the pressure hasn’t lifted. The Azzurri are still chasing Norway in Group I, and anything less than six points from this Estonia-Israel double-header would be a national scandal.
Estonia, on the other hand, ran more distance in Bergamo but spent most of it chasing shadows. Karl Hein made eight saves that night, preventing an even uglier scoreline. The visitors had four shots in total while Italy fired forty. The gulf was clear.
Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability: Italy Firm Favourites
Italy: 1/6 (1.17) – 85.5%
Draw: 6/1 (7.00) – 13.5%
Estonia: 20/1 (21.00) – 4.8%
Odds courtesy of Stake, subject to change
Head-to-Head Record
Last Five Meetings:
05 Sep 2025 – Italy 5–0 Estonia
11 Nov 2020 – Italy 4–0 Estonia
18 Nov 2014 – Italy 1–0 Estonia
03 Jun 2011 – Italy 3–0 Estonia
29 Mar 2011 – Estonia 0–2 Italy
Overall: Italy 8 wins | Estonia 0 wins | 0 draws | Goals Italy 25 – 2 Estonia
Estonia: Current Form – W-L-L-L-D
Estonia’s campaign has been a patchwork of hopeful moments overshadowed by predictable results. In Bergamo, they spent most of the evening defending their own box as if it were under siege. Despite hard running, they lacked bite up front, managing only a handful of counterattacks.
Coach Jurgen Henn knows his team can’t match Italy’s technical level. Instead, Estonia will lean on compact defending and set-piece scraps to stay alive. The key battle is psychological; they must avoid early collapse like last time, when Italy led inside 15 minutes and never looked back.
Key Players to Watch
- Karl Hein (GK, Werder Bremen): Outstanding in the 5-0 loss and likely to be busy again. His reflexes and positioning are Estonia’s last line of defence.
- Maksim Paskotsi (CB, Gent): Composed on the ball but prone to lapses when overloaded. Will need to marshal Italy’s press.
- Rauno Sappinen (CF, Flora Tallinn): Industrious and brave. Scored domestically at will but has found international service scarce.
Estonia Team News
Henn is expected to field a near-identical side to the one that started in Bergamo, lining up in a 5-4-1 with Sappinen up front and Shein partnering Käit in midfield. Mets and Kuusk compete for a spot next to Paskotsi, while Sinyavskiy and Schjönning-Larsen provide width on the flanks.
Italy: Current Form – D-L-W-W-W
Gattuso inherits a talented yet inconsistent group. The Bergamo thrashing was orchestrated through full-back width and midfield dynamism. Di Lorenzo and Dimarco overlapped endlessly, while Barella and Tonali dictated rhythm with surgical precision. Retegui, Kean, and Zaccagni combined fluidly, exploiting Estonia’s tired legs and defensive confusion.
For the Tallinn trip, Gattuso will maintain his 4-3-3 but with tweaks. Frattesi replaces the suspended Tonali, while Locatelli joins Barella to anchor the midfield. In attack, Retegui remains the focal point, supported by Raspadori and Cambiaghi, who offer pace and movement.
Italy’s biggest weapon remains control. They kept the ball for nearly seventy percent of the last game, stringing together over 650 passes. If Gattuso’s men can replicate that rhythm, they’ll coast to victory again.
Key Players to Watch
- Nicolo Barella (Inter): The conductor of Italy’s midfield. His energy and creativity drive the tempo, and his shooting from distance adds another dimension.
- Mateo Retegui (Al-Qadsiah): Led the line effectively in Bergamo. Physical, direct, and ruthless if given space.
- Davide Frattesi (Inter): Arrives late at the box and often ghosts past defenders. Estonia’s deep block may suit his timing perfectly.
Italy Team News
Gattuso confirmed that Scamacca, Politano, Zaccagni, and Scalvini remain unavailable. Kean could feature off the bench, while Bastoni and Calafiori anchor the defence. Udogie returns at left-back, replacing Dimarco to add athleticism.
Predicted Line-Up
Estonia (5-4-1): Hein; Schjönning-Larsen, Kuusk, Paskotsi, Mets, Saliste; Käit, Shein, Sinyavskiy, Kristal; Sappinen.
Italy (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Calafiori, Udogie; Barella, Locatelli, Frattesi; Cambiaghi, Raspadori, Retegui.
Suggested Bets
Based on current form and head-to-head records, here are our key selections alongside additional tips and predictions for today's matches.
Italy to Win & Over 2.5 Goals: The Azzurri dominated every metric in the last encounter and should create plenty again. 4/5 – 1.80 – 55.6% with 1xBet
Both Teams to Score – No: Estonia have scored only twice in eight meetings with Italy. 7/10 – 1.70 – 58.8% with Betandyou
Mateo Retegui Anytime Scorer: In-form for club and country, and likely to get multiple chances. (6/4 – 2.50 – 40% with Stake
Value Bets
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Davide Frattesi Anytime Scorer: Loves a late run into the box and could punish tired legs. 3/1 – 4.00 – 25% with Betandyou
Exact Score 0-2 Italy: Professional performance expected rather than another rout. (11/2 – 6.50 – 15.4% with BetWinner
Italy Clean Sheet Win: Donnarumma and his defence should keep Estonia at bay. (9/10 – 1.90 – 52.6% with Betway
Prediction: Italy to Win To Nil
Estonia does not have much choice but to defend in numbers and hope that Hein pulls off another one for the history books. Italy is going to dominate in every facet of the game and test their patience before a breakthrough. Gattuso’s debut run at qualification should deliver a night to remember for the Azzurri, a win that will undoubtedly keep their hopes for the big stage intact.
When one team controls proceedings like this, understanding match dynamics is crucial for smart football betting decisions.
Joshua Gaillard is a freelance editor and dedicated Arsenal fan, known for creating fact-based, insightful content. His work, featured on top South African websites, blends analysis with engaging storytelling for clear, impactful articles.