Football
Lithuania vs Poland Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction
Date: October 12, 2025 Kickoff Time: 21:45 (UK Time) Venue: Darius and Girenas Stadium SportsBoom previews the 2026 FIFA World Cup (UEFA Group G), qualifying match between Lithuania and Poland at the Darius and Girenas Stadium on Sunday, 12 October 2025. Poland, rejuvenated under new manager Jan Urban, faces a resilient Lithuania outfit in a crucial World Cup qualifier. This tactical clash between Poland’s ever-improving attack and Lithuania’s disciplined defence could reshape Group G’s standings significantly. With Poland looking strong and Lithuania holding firm at home, there could be some interesting options at trusted football betting platforms for this clash.
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Robert Lewandowski and Paulius Golubickas vie for the ball//Getty Images
The stakes continue to rise in Group G of the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers as Lithuania hosts Poland in a clash that could significantly shape the group’s landscape.
Both sides enter this fixture with vastly different trajectories. Poland are building momentum with encouraging results against the Netherlands and Finland.
Meanwhile, Lithuania have become a gritty underdog, frustrating stronger opponents despite struggling to turn their effort into wins.
Tactically, this match offers a fascinating duel between Poland’s fluid attacking transitions against Lithuania’s resilient, counterpunching approach.
With Robert Lewandowski, Jakub Kaminski and Matty Cash in fine form, the Eagles will look to assert dominance early. However, Lithuania have proven difficult to break down even in defeat. Expect a tense battle as Poland aim to dominate while Lithuania look to spring another surprise on home soil.
PRE-GAME ODDS AND WIN PROBABILITY
POLAND CLEAR FAVOURITES
HOME: 420/100 (5.20) – 19,2%
DRAW: 260/100 (3.60) – 27,8%
AWAY: 75/100 (1.75) – 57,1%
*Odds courtesy of Betway, subject to change
HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD
Last Five Meetings
21/03/25: Poland 1-0 Lithuania
12/06/18: Poland 4-0 Lithuania
06/06/16: Poland 0-0 Lithuania
06/06/14: Poland 2-1 Lithuania
25/03/11: Lithuania 2-0 Poland
LITHUANIA: CURRENT FORM – LDLDD
Lithuania would feel hard done by after pushing both Poland and Netherlands to their limits, losing by a narrow one-goal margin on both occasions while securing three draws against opponents in their own weight class.
Against Poland (1-0) in their Group G opener, Lithuania gave a good account of themselves but left empty-handed as Lewandowski showed his class.
After only 17 minutes, Lithuania were in trouble against Finland. Armandas Kucys and Gvidas Gineitis rescued a draw for the Rinktine in the second half, clawing Lithuania back from a two-goal deficit.
Lithuania (145th) were disappointing on their trip to Malta (166th), coming away with a goalless draw against an opponent that’s ranked 21 places lower than.
Manager Edgaras Jankauskas then opted to test his side in a high-profile friendly against Denmark, but the gulf in class was evident as Lithuania were thrashed (5-0) in a humbling defeat.
Gvidas Gineitis saved Lithuania from the penalty spot during extra time (96th-minute) to secure a 1-1 draw with Malta. Gineitis and Edvinas Girdvainis were on the scoresheet as Lithuania gave the Netherlands a proper run for their money in a 3-2 defeat.
Lithuania’s qualifying campaign has been far from consistent, but their ability to push stronger teams and grind out results suggests untapped potential.
With improved discipline at the back and more composure in front of goal, they could play spoiler for the others in Group G.
KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH
- Gvidas Gineitis: The 21-year-old midfielder, plying his trade at Torino in the Italian Serie A, scored and assisted against Netherlands while also converting his penalty in the clash with Malta. An imposing figure leading the line at 1,91m tall.
- Fedor Cernych: A technically gifted midfielder, Cernych plays a crucial role in creating chances for Lithuania. His creativity and movement lift the team’s attacking rhythm. His tactical awareness is a massive assets for breaking down stubborn defences.
- Edgaras Dubickas: The 27-year-old forward has hit the ground running this season, scoring four goals and tallying two assists from six matches for Italian Serie C club Ternana Calcio.
LITHUANIA TEAM NEWS
Cercle Brugge defender Edgaras Utkus and Artemijus Tutyskinas (NK Celje), are expected to return from suspension. Meanwhile, Edgaras Dubickas makes his return to the squad for first time since 2021.
Experienced midfielder Fedor Cernych has been selected alongside defender Pijus Sirvys and Vykintas Slivka. Meanwhile, the biggest absentee is surely the promising 22-year-old striker Armandas Kucys, who suffered a cruciate ligament tear.
POLAND: CURRENT FORM – WDLWW
Following their 2-1 loss to Finland at the Helsinki Olympic Stadium, the Polish Football Association decided to part ways with manager Michal Probierz after a 21-match spell.
Jan Urban, who represented Poland 57 times in his career as a player, was appointed as the new head coach. Prior to Urban’s arrival, talisman Robert Lewandowski inspired Poland to a (1-0) victory over Lithuania on home soil in Warsaw.
In their next Group G qualifier, Poland, ranked 36th on the latest FIFA rankings, rested Lewandowski against minnows Malta (166th). Karol Swiderski, currently in fine form for Panathinaikos, grabbed the opportunity with both hands, scoring a brace to galvanize the Eagles to a (2-0) win.
Since taking over the reins, manager Jan Urban held group-favourites Netherlands to a (1-1) stalemate away in Feyenoord as Matty Cash rescued a point for the Eagles, cancelling out Denzel Dumfries' opener.
Poland were sensational in Urban’s debut on home soil with Matty Cash, Robert Lewandowski, and Jakub Kaminski scoring to claim maximum points over Finland (3-1), the team that got their previous manager Probierz sacked.
The Eagles are set to take on New Zealand in a friendly match in order to be match-sharp against Lithuania. With momentum building under manager Jan Urban, Poland appears to have turned a corner both mentally and tactically.
The blend of experienced leaders like Lewandowski and emerging talents such as Swiderski and Kaminski gives the Eagles renewed hope in their push for World Cup qualification.
KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH
- Jakub Kaminski: The 23-year-old has scored in three of his past five matches for German outfit FC Cologne, while finding the back of the net against Finland and assisting Matty Cash for the opening goal.
- Robert Lewandowski: The 37-year-old striker was the difference maker when these teams last faced each other. Lewandowski scored in a 1-0 win during a match that many expected to be more one-sided, heavily favouring Poland.
- Matty Cash: The experienced Premier League right-back is enjoying a purple patch, scoring for his nation in three straight games against Moldova, the Netherlands, and Finland. This new system under Jan Urban encourages Cash to be more expansive, while Jakub Kiwior is more disciplined on the opposite flank.
POLAND TEAM NEWS
Midfielder Kacper Kozlowski has been selected for the national team following a four-year hiatus, while Michal Skoras makes his comeback after more than 12 months. Skoras is impossible to overlook because of his current form for KAA Gent in Belgium. There are no major injury concerns with the big names all included and fit to play this crucial World Cup qualifier.
PREDICTED LINE-UPS
Lithuania: 4-2-3-1
Gertmonas; Sirvys, Lasickas, Girdvainis, Tutyskinas; Gineitis; Cernych; Dubickas, Slivka, Lasickas; Jansonas.
Poland: 4-4-2
Skorupski; Cash, Wisniewski, Bednarek, Kiwior; Szymanski, Slisz, Zielinski, Zalewski; Kaminski, Lewandowski.
SUGGESTED BETS
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Anytime Goalscorer - Robert Lewandowski: Very small odds on offer, yet this bet is secure. (30/100 with Betway) (31/100 with Stake) (32/100 with 888Starz)
Poland To Score in Both Halves - Yes: The visitors are expected to run riot against the Lithuanian defence. (68/100 with Betway) (67/100 with Stake) (67/100 with 888Starz)
Poland Total (Total 2.5) Over 2.5 Goals: Poland is much more cohesive under Jan Urban. At even money, this is a solid bet. (100/100 with Betway) (101/100 with Stake) (103/100 with 888Starz)
VALUE BETS
Always review the betting rules for each market, especially in tightly contested matches.
First Goalscorer - Robert Lewandowski: The Barcelona striker was the first player to score when these opponents last met. (103/100 with Betway) (105/100 with Stake) (103/100 with 888Starz)
Poland To Win Both Halves - Yes: Poland could win 2-0 and have this option come home with flying colours. (125/100 with Betway) (124/100 with Stake) (123/100 with 888Starz)
1X2 & Both Teams To Score – Poland & Yes: If you’re in search of excessive odds, look no further. Opting for Lithuania to find the back of the net with Poland to win could prove a smart play. (250/100 with Betway) (251/100 with Stake) (253/100 with 888Starz)
PREDICTION: POLAND TO WIN
Poland head into this encounter with momentum firmly on their side. Since manager Jan Urban took charge, the Eagles earned a draw against the Netherlands and a convincing win over Finland.
The team looks revitalized, with Matty Cash and Robert Lewandowski both finding the net regularly. Lithuania, on the other hand, are without a win in five matches and have shown defensive frailty, conceding five goals to Denmark and three to the Netherlands.
Without the creative spark of Kucys, Lithuania’s ability to trouble Poland seems limited. This looks set to be a professional performance from a side eyeing World Cup qualification. Poland should emerge victorious.
Bryan is a passionate sports writer with a focus on football and cricket. While he loves top leagues like the UEFA Champions League, La Liga, and the Premier League, he also covers lesser-known leagues, offering previews and tips for sports betting sites.