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UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction

Date: Saturday, 17 May 2025 Time: 7:00 PM ET / 12:00 AM BST Venue: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA Michael Morales takes on veteran Gilbert Burns in the welterweight headliner at UFC Fight Night, set for Saturday, 17 May 2025 at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas. As the undefeated Ecuadorian aims to solidify his place in the contender queue, Burns looks to prove he’s still elite despite recent setbacks. For those exploring MMA betting options, check out MMA sports betting for expert insights and betting sites.

J.G.

Sports Writer

Last updated: 2025-05-12

Fact checked by:

Chad Nagel

Sports & Betting Editor

5 minutes read

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Gilbert Burns of Brazil//Getty Images

Table of Contents

Morales Aims to Cement Contender Status; Burns Seeks Redemption

Some matchups are about legacy; some are about launching careers. This one? A bit of both. Gilbert Burns, who’s faced practically everyone in the welterweight murderers’ row, steps in against Michael Morales, the undefeated Ecuadorian who, frankly, hasn’t looked bothered by much so far. UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales may not be a title bout, but it’s got every bit of consequence.

Pre-Fight Odds and Win Probability: Champion Slight Favorite

Let’s not beat around the bush: the books are siding with youth.

Michael Morales: 1/5 (1.20) – 83.3%
Gilbert Burns: 19/5 (4.80) – 20.8%

Odds courtesy of Stake, subject to change.

Morales hasn’t just been winning; he’s been walking through people. Burns? Still dangerous, but Father Time doesn’t tap gloves. For more insight into odds like these, visit our online sports betting hub.

Tale of the Tape

This one’s not complicated: longer reach, better chin (so far), and fresher legs. But hey, never count out a BJJ black belt who hits like a truck.

Attribute	Gilbert Burns	Michael Morales
Age	38	25
Height	178 cm (5’10”)	183 cm (6’0”)
Weight	88kg (170 lbs)	88kg (170 lbs)
Reach	180 cm (71”)	201 cm (79”)
Record	22-8-0	17-0-0
KO/TKO	27% (6 wins)	71% (12 wins)
Submission	41% (9 wins)	6% (1 wins)
Decisions	32% (7 wins)	24% (4 wins)

Gilbert Burns News

Gilbert Burns has never been the kind of fighter to shy away from a challenge, which is probably how he ended up headlining another card against a younger, hungrier, undefeated killer. A former title challenger and perennial top-five staple, Burns has seen it all: brawls, grappling battles, short-notice wars. But in recent fights, time has done what opponents struggled to, slow him down. He’s dropped three of his last four, including a tough loss to Belal Muhammad that showed he’s still tough but no longer untouchable. That said, underestimate him at your own risk. Burns still has legitimate knockout power and world-class BJJ, a combination that can flip momentum fast. If he gets inside early and drags Morales into a scrap or a scramble, it’s anyone’s fight. Experience doesn’t show up on the stat sheet, but it shows up under pressure.

Michael Morales News

Michael Morales is undefeated and unbothered. The 25-year-old has built a pristine 17-0 record without showing many cracks, and each time he steps into the Octagon, he looks more like a future title contender than a raw prospect. His style is patient but violent, never reckless, but always calculating, with crisp combinations and underrated takedown defense. Morales doesn’t chase finishes, he manufactures them. His last few outings showcased not just talent but composure, a rare trait in rising stars. The UFC clearly knows what it has here, fast-tracking him into a main event slot against a former title challenger. If he passes this test, he’s entering the welterweight elite conversation. Burns is a big step up in name value, but Morales has the tools, tempo, and temperament to make it look like just another win.

Suggested Bets

Looking to bet without burning your slip? Start with a free signup bonus then dive into these picks:

Michael Morales to Win by KO/TKO: 4/6 (1.67) – 60%
Julian Erosa vs Melquizael Costa – Fight to Go the Distance – Yes: 10/11 (1.91) – 52.4%
Paul Craig to Be Knocked Down – Yes: 5/4 (2.25) – 44.4%

Value Bets

High-reward punting isn’t just about taking a shot, it’s about seeing a path others might miss. Here are three options that fit that mould:

Connor Matthews vs Yadier DelValle – Fight to End in Round 1: 3/1 (4.00) – 25%
Luana Santos to Win by Decision: 7/2 (4.50) – 22.2%
Denise Gomes to Win in Round 2: 11/2 (6.50) – 15.4%

Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales Prediction

This one comes down to timing, and not just in the striking sense. Burns still has the skills, but Morales has the speed, youth, and form. Expect Gilbert to make it gritty early, looking to close distance and test Morales’ takedown defence. But the younger man doesn’t overreact under pressure. He'll find his range, avoid the clinch traps, and start piecing Burns up. Unless the Brazilian pulls something wild out of his veteran bag, Morales should break him down with straight shots and movement. Prediction: Morales via TKO, round two, calculated, clean, and probably inevitable.

Full Card Predictions

Main Card

Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales – Morales via TKO
Paul Craig vs Rodolfo Bellato – Bellato via Decision
Nursulton Ruziboev vs Dustin Stoltzfus – Ruziboev via Submission
Matheus Camilo vs Gabe Green – Green via KO
Julian Erosa vs Melquizael Costa – Costa via Decision
Sodiq Yusuff vs Mairon Santos – Yusuff via KO

Preliminary Card

Luana Santos vs Tainara Lisboa – Lisboa via Submission
Hyun Sung Park vs Carlos Hernandez – Park via Decision
Luana Pinheiro vs Tecia Pennington – Pinheiro via Decision
Denise Gomes vs Elise Reed – Gomes via TKO
Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moises – Moises via Decision
Connor Matthews vs Yadier DelValle – DelValle via KO

Joshua Gaillard Sports Writer

Joshua Gaillard is a freelance editor and dedicated Arsenal fan, known for creating fact-based, insightful content. His work, featured on top South African websites, blends analysis with engaging storytelling for clear, impactful articles.