MMA
UFC 318 Betting Preview: Holloway vs Poirier 3 Odds, Tips and Predictions
Date: Saturday, 19 July 2025 Time: 02:00 AM BST (Main Card) Venue: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana, USA Broadcaster: ESPN+ (US), Discovery+ Premium (UK) UFC 318 returns to New Orleans with a high-octane rematch between Dustin “The Diamond” Poirier and Max “Blessed” Holloway for the BMF title. It's been over five years since their last showdown, and now the rivalry comes full circle. With a title on the line and Poirier confirming this will be his final fight, fans can expect fireworks from the very first bell. The card also features the likes of Paulo Costa, Kevin Holland, and Patricio Pitbull in action, making it one of the most stacked UFC Fight Nights in recent memory. Let’s get into the numbers, narratives, and betting angles. For punters looking to place a wager, there are plenty of sharp prices available on the top UFC betting sites.
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Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier//Getty Images
The Final Chapter: Poirier’s Last Dance vs Holloway’s Redemption
Dustin Poirier has confirmed that UFC 318 will be his final walk to the Octagon. This decision stems from more than just wear and tear. He’s spoken openly about losing the hunger for brutal weight cuts and wanting more time with his family. This is about ending his story on his terms.
But he’s not coasting to the finish line. He leads Holloway 2-0 and wants to close the trilogy emphatically. For Max, it’s about legacy too. After winning the BMF title with a KO over Gaethje, he’s eager to prove he belongs at lightweight. He expects a war and hinted that Poirier might give him one last “iconic gesture” to settle their rivalry in style.
Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability: Holloway Edges Ahead
Max Holloway: 4/5 (1.80) – 55.6%
Dustin Poirier: 11/10 (2.10) – 47.6%
Odds courtesy of Stake, subject to change.
Online betting sites give Holloway the slight edge heading into the rubber match. But Poirier thrives in adversity, and emotion may push him beyond his limits. This is not just about stats, it is about legacy. For more options, check our guide to online betting.
Tale of the Tape
| Attribute | Max Holloway | Dustin Poirier |
| Age | 33 | 36 |
| Height | 5'11" (180 cm) | 5'9" (175 cm) |
| Weight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg) | 155 lbs (70.3 kg) |
| Reach | 69.0" (175 cm) | 73.0" (185 cm) |
| Record | 26-8-0 | 30-9-0 (1 NC) |
| KO/TKO | 12 (46%) | 16 (53%) |
| Submission | 2 (8%) | 7 (23%) |
| Decisions | 12 (46%) | 7 (23%) |
Max Holloway News
Max Holloway comes into UFC 318 after a rollercoaster 12 months. He claimed the BMF title with a jaw-dropping knockout of Justin Gaethje at UFC 300, only to lose it in his next bout to Ilia Topuria. While that KO raised questions about his durability, “Blessed” still possesses some of the cleanest volume striking and fight IQ in the division.
Now back at lightweight, Holloway expects Poirier to meet him in the middle and trade. He recently said he is counting on Poirier to oblige him with the same iconic glove-touch setup that led to his Gaethje knockout. Holloway is not here to support a farewell tour. He is looking for revenge and momentum toward another title run.
Dustin Poirier News
Dustin Poirier has made it official: UFC 318 will be his final fight. After years of elite competition, the Louisiana native says the fire is fading and the recovery is harder. He wants to retire on his own terms with his hand raised in front of his home crowd and family.
But don't confuse sentiment for softness. Poirier is coming off a brutal KO win over Benoît Saint Denis and remains one of the most dangerous pressure fighters in the sport. His well-rounded skillset, including sharp boxing and sneaky submissions, could pose serious problems if Holloway overcommits. A win here would make it 3-0 over Holloway and close the book on a storied career.
Suggested Bets
Holloway to Win by Decision: Max’s volume and cardio give him the edge in the long game. 7/4 (2.75) – 36.4% with Stake
Costa vs Kopylov Over 2.5 Rounds: Measured power and respect likely draw this out. 1/1 (2.00) – 50% with Betway
Kevin Holland to Win by KO/TKO: Big reach, big power. Rodriguez is hittable. 13/10 (2.30) – 43.5% with Betandyou
Value Bets
Vinicius Oliveira to Win in Round 1: He starts hot and hits hard. If it happens, it happens early. 5/1 (6.00) – 16.7% with Stake
Dan Ige vs Patricio Pitbull – Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance: Both crack. Pitbull’s durability is fading. 11/10 (2.10) – 47.6% with 1xBet
Brendan Allen to Win by Submission: Vettori scrambles too much. Allen thrives in chaos. 4/1 (5.00) – 20% with Betway
Prediction: Other fights to note
Prediction: Other fights to note
Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov – Costa loves to stalk and pressure, but Kopylov’s slick counters and body shots could steal it.
Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez – Expect nonstop action. Holland’s unorthodox striking may outpace Rodriguez’s volume in wild exchanges.
Dan Ige vs Patricio Pitbull – Two explosive hitters with strong chins. Ige’s UFC reps give him a slight edge in chaos.
Michael Johnson vs Daniel Zellhuber – The vet still has hands. But if Zellhuber keeps composed, he’ll pick Johnson apart late.
Kyler Phillips vs Vinicius Oliveira – Movement, speed, and scramble wars. Phillips has to stay sharp early against a fast starter.
Marvin Vettori vs Brendan Allen – Vettori is hard to finish, but Allen’s slick jiu-jitsu and killer instinct make him dangerous.
Prediction: Holloway by Decision in a Wild One
This won’t be a sparring match. Poirier’s final fight promises emotion, danger, and blood, but emotion can drain the gas tank. Holloway has the volume, cardio, and composure to push the pace once the early storm passes. If Poirier doesn’t find the chin in Rounds 1 or 2, expect Max to pull away late with flurries and footwork. It’s the BMF title, so pride matters, but so does timing. Holloway to win on points feels like the sharp side. Bettors keeping an eye on the odds may even find a prop worth pairing with a sign-up boost. For those watching the markets closely might even spot a sign up bonus worth taking into the final round.
Joshua Gaillard is a freelance editor and dedicated Arsenal fan, known for creating fact-based, insightful content. His work, featured on top South African websites, blends analysis with engaging storytelling for clear, impactful articles.