MMA
MMA
Match Preview
Gambling
News

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer Preview, Tips, Odds and Predictions

UFC 316: Kelvin Gastelum vs Joe Pyfer Preview Date: Saturday, 8 June 2025 Time: 04:00 AM UTC+1 Venue: Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey, USA SportsBoom previews the long-awaited showdown between Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer at UFC 316, taking place at the Prudential Center in Newark on Saturday, 8 June 2025. This one has drama baked into the cage — with the original bout scrapped last minute and both men having traded public barbs since. Fans are circling this as a potential show-stealer. If you're looking to bet on the card, MMA sports betting has everything from expert breakdowns to UFC betting insights, plus recommendations on the best sites for UFC odds.

Joshua Gaillard
J.G.

Last Updated: 2025-06-02

Chad Nagel

7 minutes read

SportsBoom offers honest and impartial bookmaker reviews to help you make informed choices. While we may earn commissions through affiliate links, our content remains independent and free from promotional influence. For more information, see our Content Transparency and How We Review pages.

Opponents Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer face off during the UFC Fight Night.jpg

Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer/Getty Images

Gastelum Looks for Redemption, Pyfer Wants Revenge

The middleweight clash that should have happened in Mexico finally touches down in Newark. Kelvin Gastelum, the former title challenger who now shifts between weight classes, looks to derail the rising star Joe “Bodybagz” Pyfer — a knockout artist with plenty of confidence and a growing fan base. Their scheduled bout in Mexico City was scrapped after Pyfer withdrew due to ilness, and neither fighter has let the issue rest since.

For Pyfer, this is more than just a chance to climb the rankings. The cancellation and public comments lit a fire under him, and he has made it clear this one is personal. Gastelum, meanwhile, is chasing more than a win. He is chasing redemption, relevance, and the chance to remind the division that experience still matters. With the middleweight rankings in flux and both fighters eager to prove a point, this bout carries far more weight than its placement on the card suggests. Expect intensity from the opening bell.

Pre-Fight Odds and Win Probability: Pyfer Heavy Favorite

  1. Kelvin Gastelum: 4.05 (61/20) – 24.7%

  2. Joe Pyfer: 1.25 (1/4) – 80.0%

    Odds courtesy of Stake, subject to change.

    Among leading UFC bookmakers, Stake continues to offer sharp lines and competitive props for fight fans looking to place smart wagers. You can also explore our best online sports betting guide for more options.

Tale of the Tape

Attribute 

 

Kelvin Gastelum
Joe Pyfer
Age 3328
Height 175 cm (5’9”)188 cm (6’2”)
Weight 84kg (185 lbs) - Middleweight84kg (185 lbs) - Middleweight
Reach 182 cm (71”) 191 cm (75”) 
Record 19-9-0, 1 NC13-3-0 
KO/TKO 28% (6 wins)63% (9 wins)
Submission 28% (5 wins)23% (3 wins)
Decisions 44% (8 wins)1% (8 wins)

Gastelum gives up size and reach to the younger, more explosive Pyfer. The power edge clearly favours “Bodybagz,” while Gastelum boasts a more balanced finish rate. Pyfer’s low decision count signals early danger, whereas Gastelum’s durability suggests he’ll be around long enough to test that finishing instinct. Styles make fights.

Sportsboom Event Table Logo

Kelvin Gastelum News

Kelvin Gastelum is a name that once stood near the top of the middleweight rankings. These days, it feels more like a reminder of what could have been. Since nearly dethroning Israel Adesanya in one of the best fights of 2019, Gastelum has managed just two wins from his last seven outings. He has moved between weight classes, struggled with momentum, and often looked like a fighter trying to find a home that no longer exists.
His most recent victory over Daniel Rodriguez last June offered a glimmer of form, but it did little to quiet the questions. Gastelum was originally scheduled to face Pyfer earlier this year, only to withdraw late with an injury. That exit earned him more criticism than sympathy, especially after he dismissed Pyfer’s rise as hype.
Still, you cannot overlook what Gastelum brings. He is experienced, hard to finish, and has shared the cage with some of the very best. The issue is whether that experience still counts for anything when your opponent is young, hungry, and armed with a sledgehammer right hand. For Gastelum, this is not just another fight. It might be his last real chance to stay relevant in a changing division.

Joe Pyfer News

Joe Pyfer entered the UFC with a bang and a mission. After crushing his way through the Contender Series, he built a reputation for early knockouts and brutal finishes. His nickname ‘Bodybagz’ started making sense quickly. He looked every bit the next big thing, right up until Jack Hermansson dragged him through three rounds of reality earlier this year. It was the first time Pyfer faced a high-level grappler, and it showed.

To his credit, Pyfer remained active and has made it clear that his next appearance will be about sending a message. While rumours of future matchups circulate, this Gastelum fight is his first real chance to bounce back on a big stage. That win steadied the hype and reminded everyone that his power is still a problem. What makes this fight more intriguing is the personal edge. Pyfer was supposed to fight Gastelum in Mexico. When Gastelum pulled out, Pyfer took it personally and went on a media rampage.

Now he gets the shot he wanted. This is the biggest name Pyfer has faced, and also the biggest question mark. If he wins in convincing fashion, he vaults into serious contender territory. If not, the narrative changes. Pyfer wants violence and has promised to make it memorable. The only thing left to see is whether Gastelum lets him.

Suggested Bets

Make the most of your welcome bonus by considering the selections below, each offering value based on fighter styles and recent form.

  1. Joe Pyfer – Win by KO/TKO: Pyfer has finished nine of his thirteen wins by knockout, and with Gastelum absorbing more shots than ever, this feels like his fight to end. (11/20 with Stake)

  2. Over 1.5 Total Rounds: Gastelum has never been finished early and often survives wild exchanges, giving this bet strong value despite Pyfer’s power. (4/5 with BetWinner)

  3. Joe Pyfer – Win and Under 2.5 Rounds: If Pyfer shows up with his usual aggression, a quick finish is on the cards. This combo is built for exactly that. (4/6 with Betandyou)

Value Bets

High-reward punting isn’t just about taking a shot, it’s about seeing a path others might miss. 

  1. Kelvin Gastelum – Win by Decision: Gastelum has the experience to survive Pyfer’s early flurries and grind out rounds if he can force it to the scorecards. (23/5 with 1Win)

  2. Joe Pyfer – Win in Round 1: Pyfer’s game plan is no secret. If he connects clean early, Round 1 is more than just a possibility — it’s his wheelhouse. (9/4 with Pin-Up)

  3. Fight to End in Round 2: If Gastelum survives the early barrage but begins to fade, this is the round where Pyfer could find his finish. (4/1 with BC.Game)

Prediction: Joe Pyfer via KO/TKO in Round 2

It is youth versus experience, explosiveness versus veteran grit, but Pyfer has the edge. Gastelum might be durable, but he is hittable and clearly slowing down. Pyfer’s knockout percentage speaks volumes, and with an emotional chip from their previously cancelled fight, momentum leans heavily in his favour. Expect a fast pace early on, where Pyfer pressures Gastelum into a firefight. If the veteran cannot dictate tempo or get respect with his counters, he will be in serious trouble. Pyfer has the power, hunger, and timing to make a statement. Round two feels like the moment everything lands.

Joshua Gaillard
Joshua Gaillard Sports Writer

Joshua Gaillard is a freelance editor and dedicated Arsenal fan, known for creating fact-based, insightful content. His work, featured on top South African websites, blends analysis with engaging storytelling for clear, impactful articles.

MMA Match Predictions