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Ian Machado Garry vs Carlos Prates Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction

Date: Sunday, 27 April Time: 3:00 AM BST Venue: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, Missouri, USA SportsBoom previews UFC Fight Night: Garry vs Prates, a showdown between rising contenders in the welterweight division, set to headline Saturday night in the U.S. and the early hours of Sunday in the UK. Both fighters are looking to climb the rankings, with top 10 implications at play. For fans interested in getting in on MMA action and for insights into MMA sports betting, check out the best online MMA betting offers and see our full list of trusted MMA betting sites.

J.G.

Sports Writer

Last updated: 2025-04-22

Fact checked by:

Chad Nagel

Sports & Betting Editor

10 minutes read

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Ian Machado Garry of Ireland faces Shavkat Rakhmonov of Uzbekistan

Ian Machado Garry faces Shavkat Rakhmonov//Getty Images

Table of Contents

Pre-Fight Odds and Win Probability: Razor-Thin Margins

The betting odds for the UFC Fight Night main event between Ian Machado Garry and Carlos Prates are shaping up with Garry edging the odds:

Ian Machado Garry: 4/5 (1.80) – 55.6%-win probability

Carlos Prates: 1/1 (2.00) – 50%-win probability

Odds courtesy of Stake, subject to change.

If you're diving into online sports betting, the market sees Garry as a slight favourite, but Prates’ finishing ability and win streak make this a near coin-flip. Expect tight lines to shift as the fight nears.

Tale of the Tape

Attribute	Ian Machado Garry	Carlos Prates
Age	27	31
Height	191 cm (6’3”)	185 cm (6’1”)
Weight	77kg (170 lbs)	77kg (170 lbs)
Reach	189 cm (74.5”)	198 cm (78”)
Record	15-1-0	21-6-0
KO/TKO	53% (8 wins)	76% (16 wins)
Submission	7% (1 wins)	14% (3 wins)
Decisions	47% (7 wins)	10% (2 wins)

Both fighters have high finishing rates, but Prates leans heavily on his knockout power. Garry uses range, pressure, and slick striking, but his chin was tested in the past year. With Prates on an 11-fight win streak, momentum and danger both sit in his corner.

Carlos Prates of Brazil kicks Neil Magny.jpg

Ian Machado Garry News

Ian Machado Garry returns looking to bounce back after his loss to Geoff Neal, a fight that saw his undefeated streak snapped. Despite that setback, the Irishman remains one of the division’s brightest prospects.

Garry thrives on volume striking, range control, and movement. Standing at 6’3” with a long frame, he often fights tall, using teep kicks, jab feints, and step-in elbows to break rhythm. His takedown defence continues to improve, but he has yet to face a knockout artist as clinical as Prates.

The question heading into Kansas City is whether Garry can adjust defensively and avoid overcommitting in exchanges. If he can stay composed and bank rounds, he has the fight IQ to edge a decision.

Carlos Prates News

Carlos Prates enters this bout on an 11-fight win streak, something most fighters never do in their entire career. With all three of his UFC victories ending in round-one finishes, you know he is bringing the heat as a challenger. The Brazilian has shown devastating power, dispatching of respected fighters Neil Magny, Jingliang Li, and Charles Radtke in under five minutes combined.

Prates carries one of the highest knockout rates in the division, finishing 76% of his wins via strikes. His Muay Thai base, timing, and shot selection make him a nightmare for fighters who stand still or move in straight lines.

What he lacks in elite-level experience, he makes up for with killer instinct and precision. If he finds Garry’s chin early, it could be another short night.

Suggested Bets

For those interested in wagering on this UFC Fight Night, here are some suggested bets based on current odds from Stake. Note odds are subject to change.

Fight to Go the Distance – No: Given both fighters’ finishing instincts, it’s likely someone gets caught. 8/11 (1.73) – 57.9%
Fight to Go the Distance – Yes (Smith vs Zhang): Smith has gone to decision in five of his last seven. 5/6 (1.83) – 54.5%
Pereira to Win: While Magomedov presents real danger early, Pereira's recent momentum and cleaner striking make him the slight favourite. 19/20 (1.95) – 51.3%
For sports betting in the world of MMA to stay on top of your game about fighter form and last-minute changes is so crucial. For thorough analyses and updates on UFC events, you can explore sports betting online for major or minor details that could inform your pick for the better.

Value Bets

For those keen on wagering big for better returns on this UFC Fight Night, here are three value bets worth considering. The outcomes are less likely but offer stronger payouts for brave. Take advantage of bet sites with a bet sites with a welcome bonus which can offer extra value.

Garry to Win in Round 3: If he can drag Prates into deep waters and capitalize on fatigue, Garry's accurately placed shots can find the finish. 8/1 (9.00) – 11.1%
Smith to Beat Zhang: Smith comes in as a massive underdog, but his veteran savvy and grappling could trouble the less-tested Zhang. 18/5 (4.60) – 17.9%
Chikadze to Win by KO/TKO: Chikadze's striking acumen makes him a threat to finish Onama. A knockout is possible if he can find his range early on in the fight. 3/1 (4.00) – 25%

Prediction: Ian Machado Garry by Decision

This matchup boils down to range control versus ruthless power. Garry has the technique and frame to win rounds, Prates has the kind of power that changes fights instantly.

Expect Garry to start well with quick movement and kicks to keep distance, as he usually applies these methods. If he can stay disciplined and avoid recklessly trading with Prates, he’ll find success on the outside - just keep circling the octagon, Garry. He’ll likely look to bank early rounds and ride his footwork to a clean decision win.

Garry’s confidence also appears sky-high, even going as far as to call Prates “not a real fighter” in resurfaced footage and recent interviews. That mental edge could be the difference in a closely contested bout like this.

Full Card Predictions

Below are our predictions for every fight on the card at UFC Fight Night: Garry vs Prates, including the main and preliminary bouts. All picks are based on current form, stylistic matchups, and available betting odds from Stake.

Main Card

Ian Machado Garry vs Carlos Prates – Garry via Decision
Anthony Smith vs Mingyang Zhang – Smith via Decision
Giga Chikadze vs David Onama – Chikadze via KO/TKO
Michel Pereira vs Abus Magomedov – Pereira via Decision
Randy Brown vs Nicolas Dalby – Brown via Decision
Ikram Aliskerov vs André Muniz – Aliskerov via KO/TKO

Preliminary Card

Matt Schnell vs Jimmy Flick – Schnell via Decision
Evan Elder vs Gauge Young – Elder via Decision
Chris Gutierrez vs John Castañeda – Gutierrez via Decision
Da'Mon Blackshear vs Alatengheili – Blackshear via Decision
Cameron Saaiman vs Marcus Wellmaker – Saaiman via KO/TKO
Jaqueline Amorim vs Polyana Viana – Amorim via Submission
Timmy Cuamba vs Roberto Romero – Cuamba via Decision
Chelsea Chandler vs Joselyne Edwards – Edwards via Decision

Joshua Gaillard Sports Writer

Joshua Gaillard is a freelance editor and dedicated Arsenal fan, known for creating fact-based, insightful content. His work, featured on top South African websites, blends analysis with engaging storytelling for clear, impactful articles.