MMA
2025 PFL Heavyweights & Light Heavyweights First Round Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction
Date: Friday, 2 May 2025 Time: 12:00 AM BST Venue: Universal Studios, Orlando, FL, USA SportsBoom previews the 2025 PFL Heavyweights & Light Heavyweights First Round at Universal Studios, Orlando, set for Friday, 2 May 2025. As fight night approaches, excitement builds among fans analyzing stats, form, and betting odds. If you're exploring the best MMA betting options, check out our MMA sports betting guide for trusted MMA betting sites and expert insights.
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Phil Davis of the United States//Getty Images
PFL Heavyweights & Light Heavyweights: Power Meets Opportunity
The 2025 PFL World Tournament heads into the Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight divisions with another action-packed night lined up at Universal Studios, Orlando. Set for Friday, 2 May, fighters will be throwing down for critical playoff points and chasing that $1 million prize.
Favourites will try to hold their ground, but you can always count on a few dark horses to stir the pot. With so much knockout power across both divisions, fans should be ready for a night full of quick finishes, wild moments, and statement wins.
For those looking to get involved with online MMA betting sites, make sure to check out SportsBoom’s MMA betting section for trusted sites and expert insights.
Pre-Fight, Odds, and Win Probability: Wilkinson Slight Favourite
Phil Davis and Rob Wilkinson headline the 2025 PFL Heavyweights & Light Heavyweights First Round. Davis, the former Bellator champion and NCAA wrestling standout, faces Wilkinson, the former PFL Light Heavyweight champion, in a game-changing matchup.
Davis brings elite wrestling and a lifetime of top-level competition. At 40 years old, he remains durable and tactical but has shown slowing striking volume. His blend of awkward striking and nonstop takedown pressure makes him a frustrating opponent to handle. Although he lost a close decision in his last outing, no major injuries were reported, and cardio will be key to his success in this clash.
Wilkinson, nine years Davis' junior, is aggressive and powerful, with a reputation for early finishes through knockout and submission. After a disappointing setback in his last fight, Wilkinson returns sharpened by a hard training camp at Factory X Muay Thai. He’s worked specifically on clinch entries and striking combinations to enhance his already potent offensive arsenal.
The x-factor will be Wilkinson's pace against Davis' cage control. If Wilkinson can keep the fight at a distance or land heavy early, he can overwhelm Davis. If Davis survives the early push and turns it into a grind, his experience could edge out a decision.
Stylistically, this is a clash of measured experience versus forward pressure. Wilkinson thrives when dictating the tempo, but Davis has made a career out of frustrating punchers with wrestling-heavy gameplans. With Wilkinson likely to push the pace and Davis looking to slow things down, whoever controls the rhythm will likely control the outcome.
- Rob Wilkinson: 8/11 (1.73) – 57.9% chance
- Phil Davis: 11/10 (2.10) – 47.6% chance
- Prediction: Impa Kasanganay by KO/TKO.
Odds courtesy of Stake, and you can visit our sports betting online section for more online betting opportunities.
Tale of the Tape
| Attribute | Phil Davis | Rob Wilkinson |
| Age | 40 | 33 |
| Height | 188 cm (6’2”) | 191 cm (6’3”) |
| Weight | 57kg (125 lbs) | 57kg (125 lbs) |
| Reach | 198 cm (78”) | 203 cm (80”) |
| Record | 24-7-0 | 19-3-0 (1 NC) |
| KO/TKO | 25% (8 wins) | 53% (10 wins) |
| Submission | 21% (5 wins) | 37% (7 wins) |
| Decisions | 54% (13 wins) | 11% (2 wins) |
Rob Wilkinson throws a punch against Tom Breese//Getty Images
Suggested Bets
Here are three bets to consider placing for the PFL 2025 World Tournament: First Round 3:
Dalton Rosta to Win: The co-main pits Rosta’s raw athleticism and control-heavy wrestling against Sadibou Sy’s range striking. If Rosta can close the distance and keep Sy’s back on the fence, he’s got a real path to three rounds of dominance. 4/5 (1.80) – 55.6%
Gadzhi Rabadanov to Win by Decision: Rabadanov’s grappling-first style matches up well with Diakiese, who’s struggled when forced on the back foot. Expect the Russian to grind out control time and dominate the positional exchanges en route to a clear decision. 11/10 (2.10) – 47.6%
Murad Ramazanov to Win: Ramazanov’s pressure wrestling and pace could be too much for Aaron Jeffery. If he gets early control, expect a smothering top game that Jeffery struggles to answer. 8/11 (1.73) – 57.9%
For sports betting in the world of MMA, staying on top of fighter form and any last-minute updates can make a real difference. Whether you're tracking line movement or matchup changes, exploring trusted sources for PFL betting insights can give you the edge when it matters most.
Value Bets
If you're looking for higher returns on your PFL wagers, these three value bets stand out based on current odds from Stake. While they come with more risk, the potential rewards are bigger, and using a free signup bonus can help boost your payout on these high-upside plays.
Jay Jay Wilson to Win by Submission: Wilson’s ability to snatch submissions during scrambles makes this a live angle. If Burnell leaves his neck exposed in transitions, Wilson could capitalise. 5/1 (6.00) – 16.7%
Simeon Powell to Win by Decision: Powell just needs to stay composed, and he’ll likely outpoint Albrektsson over three rounds. 3/1 (4.00) – 25.0%
Alexandr Romanov to Win in Round 1: Blitzing Johnson early could lead to a realistic first-round finish. 2/1 (3.00) – 33.3%
Phil Davis vs Rob Wilkinson Prediction: Wilkinson to Win
Rob Wilkinson’s younger legs, sharp clinch striking, and finishing instincts give him the edge against Phil Davis. While Davis’ veteran savvy and wrestling will make this competitive early, Wilkinson’s pace and power should take over. Wilkinson should definitely dictate the exchanges and force a stoppage, and it's by the second or third round.
Full Card Predictions (Including Prelims)
Here are our picks for every bout:
Main Card:
- Rob Wilkinson to defeat Phil Davis via KO/TKO
- Sergey Bilostennyi to defeat Valentin Moldavsky via TKO
- Antonio Carlos Jr. to defeat Karl Moore via Submission
- Simeon Powell to defeat Karl Albrektsson via Decision
Prelims:
- Alexandr Romanov to defeat Tim Johnson via KO/TKO
- Karl Williams to defeat Oleg Popov via Decision
- Sullivan Cauley to defeat Marcelo Nunes via KO/TKO
- Rodrigo Nascimento to defeat Abraham Bably via Submission
- Rafael Xavier to defeat Alex Polizzi via Decision
Joshua Gaillard is a freelance editor and dedicated Arsenal fan, known for creating fact-based, insightful content. His work, featured on top South African websites, blends analysis with engaging storytelling for clear, impactful articles.