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Netherlands vs Finland Preview: Odds, Tips and Prediction

Date: October 12, 2025 Kickoff Time: 19:00 (UK Time) Venue: Johan Cruyff Arena SportsBoom previews the 2026 FIFA World Cup (UEFA Group G), qualifying match between the Netherlands and Finland at the Johan Cruyff Arena on Sunday, 12 October 2025. Pressure is mounting as we approach the finish line to secure qualification to the World Cup. The Netherlands could punch their tickets following their next two games, while Finland could find themselves out of the running if results don’t go their way. Grasping the tactical nuances is key to placing smarter bets on international matches and Premier League betting.

Bryan Naicker
Bryan Naicker

Last updated: 2025-10-08

Chad Nagel

7 minutes read

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Netherlands v Poland - FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifier

Netherlands v Poland - FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifier//Getty Images

As the road to the 2026 FIFA World Cup heats up, the Netherlands and Finland prepare to face off in a crucial UEFA Group G qualifying clash.

Ronald Koeman’s Oranje arrive in fine form, unbeaten in their last five matches and buzzing with convincing wins over Malta and Finland, together with a hard-fought victory in Lithuania that saw Memphis Depay become the nation's all-time leading scorer.

With a talented squad featuring the likes of Denzel Dumfries, Cody Gakpo, and Xavi Simons, the Dutch are no longer dark horses; they’re serious contenders.

Meanwhile, Finland is undergoing a rebuild under new head coach Jacob Friis. Despite never qualifying for a World Cup, the Eagle-Owls have shown flashes of potential with Joel Pohjanpalo and Benjamin Kallman leading the line.

With both nations aiming to solidify their position in Group G, this encounter promises intensity and slick-moving attacking football by the originators of Total Football.

PRE-GAME ODDS AND WIN PROBABILITY

NETHERLANDS CLEAR FAVOURITES

  1. HOME: 20/100 (1.20) – 83,3%

  2. DRAW: 700/100 (8.00) – 12,5%

  3. AWAY: 1200/100 (13.00) – 7,7%

    *Odds courtesy of Betway, subject to change

HEAD-TO-HEAD RECORD

Last Five Meetings

  1. 07/06/25: Finland 0-2 Netherlands

  2. 06/09/11: Finland 0-2 Netherlands

  3. 07/09/10: Netherlands 2-1 Finland

  4. 08/06/05: Finland 0-4 Netherlands

  5. 13/10/04: Netherlands 3-1 Finland

NETHERLANDS: CURRENT FORM – WDWWD

Ronald Koeman is set to guide the Netherlands to the 2026 FIFA World Cup after spending two stints as manager following their 2018 and 2022 campaigns under the tutelage of Dick Advocaat and Louis van Gaal, respectively.

This new era of the Oranje appears more promising than past editions with the squad boasting greater talent and depth, narrowing the gap on international heavyweights like Spain, France, Argentina, England, Portugal and Brazil.

The Netherlands, currently ranked the 7th best team in the latest FIFA rankings, come into the clash brimming with confidence. Memphis Depay and Denzel Dumfries scored for the Dutch in Helsinki, completing a (2-0) victory over Finland.

Malta travelled to the Netherlands, making the trip to Groningen, only to suffer a humbling 8-0 defeat, dismantled by a ruthless and well-oiled Dutch machine.

The Netherlands faced a tougher test in their next match, taking on Poland in a challenging encounter in Rotterdam, in a battle for supremacy at the summit of Group G.

Denzel Dumfries’ first-half strike was cancelled out by a fellow right-back, Matty Cash, in the final 10 minutes as both teams settled for a share of the spoils.

Making the trip to Lithuania, Ronald Koeman’s troops found themselves 2-0 up within 30 minutes thanks to Memphis Depay and Quinten Timber. However, Lithuania equalized with two goals of their own before the halftime whistle, stunning the visitors.

With the stage set perfectly, Depay netted the winner to clinch a 3-2 victory and become the Netherlands’ all-time leading goalscorer, overtaking Robin van Persie (50 goals).

Despite their defensive lapses against Lithuania and conceding their lead to Poland, the Netherlands’ recent performances show a team growing in stature to become one of the favourites at the 2026 FIFA World Cup instead of their regular dark horse tag.

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

  • Xavi Simons: The influential attack-minded midfielder seems to have found his feet at Tottenham in recent games, able to display his quality in the English Premier League just as he did in the German Bundesliga with RB Leipzig.
  • Cody Gakpo: Following a slower start to the season compared to his usual standards, Gakpo registered his first Premier League goal of the season during Liverpool’s defeat to Chelsea last weekend. A lethal finisher when provided with opportunities.
  • Denzel Dumfries: The marauding right-back has a knack for scoring goals in big matches and always contributes to the team effort, swinging crosses in the box after beating past his man along the flank. Dumfries scored for his nation against both Lithuania and Poland.

NETHERLANDS TEAM NEWS

Ronald Koeman was forced to make a late change to his squad, calling up Teun Koopmeiners ahead of their clash with Malta. The Juventus midfielder replaced Quinten Timber, who failed to recover sufficiently from a serious knee injury.

AZ Alkmaar striker Mexx Meerdink was selected for the first time with Wout Weghorst and Memphis Depay citing minor injury concerns.

Napoli winger Noa Lang was a notable absentee from the squad alongside in-form Manchester United defender Matthijs de Ligt.

FINLAND: CURRENT FORM – LLWLD

Finland suffered six successive defeats during their UEFA Nations League campaign, prompting a change in management with Augsburg assistant coach Jacob Friis appointed as head coach on a three-year contract, replacing Markku Kanerva.

Friis is faced with an uphill task, seeing as Finland has never qualified for a World Cup. Although Finland gave a decent account of themselves ahead of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, with striker Teemu Pukki in red-hot scoring form, netting six goals during the qualifiers.

Oliver Antman scored the vital goal for Finland in Friis’ first match at the helm, edging out a (1-0) away win in Malta. Finland then made the trip to Lithuania, finding themselves 2-0 up courtesy of first-half goals by Kaan Kairinen and Joel Pohjanpalo.

However, careless defending led to Lithuania cancelling out Finland’s two-goal advantage to steal a share of the spoils (2-2) in an entertaining stalemate. Returning to home soil, the Netherlands claimed maximum points over Finland (0-2), while their clash with Poland proved much more fruitful.

Joel Pohjanpalo and Benjamin Kallman were on the scoresheet for Finland, while Jakub Kiwior netted a consolation goal for Poland in a 2-1 win for the hosts. Preparing for the return clash away in Poland, Finland lost to Norway (1-0) in a friendly.

Poland outclassed Finland at the Silesian Stadium, running out 3-1 winners with Benjamin Kallman coming off the bench to score in successive qualifying matches.

Despite mixed results, Jacob Friis has enforced promising changes in attack with key forwards Pohjanpalo and Kallman stepping up for the Eagle-Owls. If Finland can tighten up defensively, they could mount a credible challenge to qualify for their first-ever FIFA World Cup.

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

  • Joel Pohjanpalo: Slotting home penalties against Poland and Lithuania, Pohjanpalo showed calm under pressure. The new focal point in attack for Finland with veteran striker Teemu Pukki now resigned to an impact substitute role.
  • Oliver Antman: The 24-year-old winger offers pace and directness along the flanks, helping Finland possess a cutting edge during attacking transitions. Antman scored the winner against Malta and continues to grow into a key figure under Jacob Friis.
  • Benjamin Kallman: The experienced forward enjoys physicality and has an eye for goal, providing Finland with a valuable alternative in the final third. Kallman is making the most of his opportunities, scoring in back-to-back World Cup qualifiers.

FINLAND TEAM NEWS

Jacob Friis has also shown a willingness to refresh the squad, handing out several first-time call-ups to Juho Lahteenmaki (FC Nordsjaelland), Tony Miettinen (Mjallby AIF), Naatan Skytta (FC Kaiserslautern), and Adrian Svanback (Hacken). Blending youth with experience, Finland’s evolving side is beginning to show signs of potential under the guidance of Friis.

PREDICTED LINE-UPS

  1. Netherlands: 4-3-3

    Verbruggen; Dumfries, van de Ven, van Dijk, Timber; de Jong, Gravenberch, Reijnders; Simons, Depay, Gakpo.

  2. Finland: 3-4-2-1

    Joronen; Peltola, Terho, Koski; Alho, Kairinen, Markhiev, Uronen; Lod, Antman; Pohjanpalo.

SUGGESTED BETS

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  1. Overs/Unders (Total 2.5) – Over 2.5: After losing 3-1 to Poland, we expect Finland to face a similar fate against the Netherlands. (55/100 with Betway) (53/100 with Stake) (54/100 with 888Starz)

  2. Both Teams To Score – No: Finland failed to break down the Netherlands’ defence in the previous clash, losing 2-0. Follow the trend. (73/100 with Betway) (74/100 with Stake) (75/100 with 888Starz)

  3. Netherlands Total (Total 1.5) – Over 1.5: The Dutch have scored a minimum of two goals in each of their last five games with Finland. (84/100 with Betway) (85/100 with Stake) (84/100 with 888Starz)

VALUE BETS

Ensure you always review the Football betting rules for each market in tightly contested matches.

  1. Double Chance and Overs/Unders (Total 2.5) – Netherlands/Draw & Over 2.5: Taking the above bets in mind, it makes sense to couple Over 2.5 Goals with Netherlands on the Double Chance. (115/100 with Betway) (114/100 with Stake) (115/100 with 888Starz)

  2. Netherlands To Win Both Halves: Yes: One of the most lucrative bets on offer, if you’re backing Netherlands to dominate from the onset. (133/100 with Betway) (134/100 with Stake) (135/100 with 888Starz)

  3. Netherlands Win To Nil: Yes. Taking the Netherlands to win on home soil, while keeping a clean sheet, makes perfect sense. (143/100 with Betway) (142/100 with Stake) (145/100 with 888Starz)

PREDICTION: NETHERLANDS TO WIN

The Netherlands come into this clash in impressive form, unbeaten in their last five matches and playing with a renewed confidence under Ronald Koeman.

The Dutch squad boasts superior depth and attacking quality with Memphis Depay, Denzel Dumfries, and Cody Gakpo all contributing key goals in recent matches.

The Netherlands dismantled Malta 8-0 and showed resilience in comeback wins over Lithuania. On the other hand, Finland has struggled defensively, blowing a two-goal lead against Lithuania and conceding five goals across two matches against Poland.

While key players like Joel Pohjanpalo and Benjamin Kallman are in decent form, Finland may pose a threat, but the Dutch look too powerful across the pitch. Expect a dominant, stylish performance from the Oranje, with a 2-0 or 3-0 victory the most likely outcome.

Bryan Naicker
Bryan NaickerSports Writer

Bryan is a passionate sports writer with a focus on football and cricket. While he loves top leagues like the UEFA Champions League, La Liga, and the Premier League, he also covers lesser-known leagues, offering previews and tips for sports betting sites.