Venezuela a Hot Pick for Sharps in Little League World Series Betting

This is not a good time to be a Venezuelan in the United States. With two exceptions: Youngsters who are competing in baseball’s Little League World Series, and Venezuelan-Americans who believe in their team.

And the sharpest of them are wagering heavily on the youths from their homeland.

Sharps Stack Bets on Venezuela After Opening Win

After a 6-0 victory over Puerto Rico in their first game, the team known as “Cardenales” will play against Canada on Friday in the international bracket. The format is double elimination, which means a team can lose once but must exit the tournament after a second loss. 

An astounding 92 percent of sharp bettors backed Venezuela against Puerto Rico, compared to 78 percent of non-sharps, according to industry expert Scott Cooley of CoolMediaPR.

Insights from BetOnline.ag

The international bracket champion will eventually face the United States champion in the Little League World Series championship game, and the sportsbook BetOnline.ag told SportsBoom that a lofty 18 percent of all sharp action is coming in on the Venezuelans to win the title despite not having done so for 25 years.

"Venezuela impressed us in the 2024 tournament, and we expect them to be a force again this year. The team's opening performance was on par with what the bettors expected as there was lopsided wagering on that side despite Venezuela not having any fan support in Williamsport," BetOnline.ag sportsbook manager Adam Burns told SportsBoom.com. 

"Canada doesn't have a ton of support in the futures market with just 8% of the money on them. The countries that typically field a lot of MLB players are the ones our players like to back, and Canada is not one of those," Burns added. 

Odds, Favourites, and the Road to the Title

Since the tournament began in 1947, there have been 37 champions from outside of the United States, including 17 by Taiwan (but none since 1996), 11 by Japan, and three each by Mexico and South Korea. Venezuela has won twice, the most recently in 2000.

American teams have won the last six championships, and this year the pre-tournament favourite was the Honolulu Little League team from Hawaii, home of the 2022 and 2018 champions.

Taiwan opened as the international favourite at +150, followed by Venezuela at +200, a number that rose to +500 but was at +430 Friday morning prior to the game against Canada, a matchup that happened to have a quasi-political angle because of America’s deeply strained relations with its northern neighbour, along with its bitter relationship with Venezuela, which was accused by U.S. president Donald Trump of emptying its prisons and insane asylums and sending those people on the 2,500-mile (4,000 kilometres) journey north. 

Politics Cast a Shadow Over the Tournament

That trek included navigating the jungles of the Darien Gap, getting through Central America and then making it from the southern border of Mexico to the northern border, where several million people (Trump claimed the number was 21 million) crossed illegally into the U.S. during the Biden Administration.

Because it is one of 19 nations on the U.S. list of countries from which travel to America is currently banned, Venezuela’s team needed a special exemption from the U.S. State Department and a sign-off from Secretary of State Marco Rubio after visas were initially denied. Venezuela’s senior team, players who are up to 16 years old, was unable to get the same exemption in July.

Canada is not on the banished list, but travel by Canadians to the United States has dropped significantly since Trump took office in January, with Canadians taking particular offense at Trump and some of his government officials referring to Canada as the “51st state.” Anti-American sentiment is at a historical high in Canada, where sales of bourbon from the United States have been banned in the province of Ontario.

Trump’s tariffs have included a 35 percent levy on non-exempt products from Canada, more than double the 15 percent tariff on products from Venezuela, which had 6 billion USD worth of exported goods shipped to the United States last year and purchased 4.2 billion USD of products. (Canada and the United States, by comparison, do an estimated 70 billion USD in trade annually).

Almost all Venezuelans are banned from traveling to the United States, but a special visa exception was extended to the team from Barquemesto, Venezuela. All of the 10- to 12-year-old players were allowed in, although their parents were not.

The Trump administration has been heavily focused on deporting illegal migrants to the United States, with Venezuelans among their primary targets. Using questionable legal logic, several detainees, including alleged members of the Tren de Aragua gang, were shipped off to one of the world’s harshest prisons, CECOT in El Salvador, earlier this year.

On the Field, It’s All About Baseball

Little of that matters in the world of baseball, where the Cardenales Little League qualified for the trip to the U.S. by outscoring its opponents 46-6 in its five regional games. 

In Williamsport, Pennsylvania during the opening win over Puerto Rico, fewer than three rows of seats were taken up by fans cheering for Venezuela, according to the AP. 

Whether than dominance continues remains to be seen over the next 2 weeks, and the world is watching – especially the world of gamblers, where wagering on youth sports is exceedingly rare with the exception of the Olympic Games, where many competitors in several competitions are 16 years old or younger.

Among non-U.S. teams in the Little League World Series, the squad with the longest odds is from Brisbane, Australia (opened at +2500; at +10000 Friday morning). The Czech Republic was at +7500, and the sharps were also eyeing Venezuela at +1400 to win the international bracket.